But from start to finish, the Mets showed in their 6-3 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday night that however the season turns out, their 2008 club is a different model from last year’s.

Most obvious among these differences is the presence of Johan Santana, who entered the night with an ERA at Shea Stadium of just 1.99. Santana was dominant in the first half—in the second half, he has been even better. Santana gives the Mets quantity as well as quality, pitching into the eighth inning Sunday night for the fourth time in his last ten starts. In 2007, the Mets had three pitchers do that in the entire month of September.

But the differences showed themselves as early as the first inning, when the Mets responded to Philadelphia’s first inning run with three of their own. With one out, Ryan Church singled, one of his two hits on the night. Flash back to 2007, and Church was also hitting—but for the Nationals, in three September victories over the Mets. Church had a pinch-hit home run against New York on September 17, two hits and two RBI on September 24, and his grand slam against the Mets provided the final margin in Washington’s 9-6 victory on September 26.

Two batters later, New York had a run and two runners on for Carlos Delgado, who promptly singled in the pair to give New York a 3-1 lead it would not relinquish. And while it is easy to forget within the turmoil of last year’s collapse, Delgado was not a part of much of it, with an injury keeping him out of action from September 4 to September 21. That was far from an inconsequential loss for the Mets—Delgado was a very effective offensive player for New York in 2007’s second half, posting a .285/.375/.469 line following the All Star break.

While that is short of the .284/.380/.574 second-half line in 2008 that has catapulted him into National League Most Valuable Player discussions, he was a critical bat that might have made the difference during last year’s stretch run. That became more obvious as the night went on, and he hit not one, but two home runs to help pad New York’s lead.

In the eighth inning, Jerry Manuel showed once again why his replacing Willie Randolph as manager makes an enormous difference when the Mets play critical September games. With a 5-2 lead and one out in the eighth inning, Santana gave up a double to Jason Werth. Up stepped NL home run leader Ryan Howard, a lefty. Who did Manuel bring in to pitch to Howard? Lefty Pedro Feliciano, who grounded him out. Manuel then turned to righty Brian Stokes to retire righty Pat Burrell and end the inning.

Seems simple enough, but the Mets lost many games, particularly to the Phillies, down the stretch in 2007 when Randolph failed to play the percentages. In late August, Randolph let righty Guillermo Mota pitch to Howard in an extra-inning game. Howard homered as closer Billy Wagner and lefty specialist Scott Schoeneweis sat unused in the bullpen. Even as late as September 16, Randolph let righty Jorge Sosa pitch to Greg Dobbs, who cannot hit lefties, with the bases loaded while multiple lefty relievers were available to him. Dobbs’ grand slam was the difference in a 10-6 Philadelphia win.

The ninth inning showed another difference between the two seasons. Billy Wagner had attempted a simulated game earlier in the day, but the pain from his elbow injury was too great to overcome. So while Randolph had a legitimate closer, the Mets relied on Luis Ayala, a serviceable reliever, but not a pitcher on Wagner’s level. But while on so many occasions Randolph would not have other options warming up, even when he turned to pitchers that had struggled for months, Manuel had both Joe Smith and Al Reyes, a pitcher who hadn’t thrown for the Mets all year, waiting in the wings.

Ayala, like Church, played well down the stretch in 2007—for the Nationals, against the Mets. Ayala threw three scoreless innings in three September Washington wins over New York, even earning the save on September 26. In 2008, Ayala ended the game by striking out Jimmy Rollins, leaving him hitless for the game. Last year, Rollins had a hit in the final eight games between Philadelphia and New York—and the Phillies won all eight of them.

The Mets have now eliminated Philadelphia’s last chance to gain ground directly, but new and potentially deadly flaws may still doom the Mets—and their margin for error is smaller. Luckily, this is a different cast of characters. They have reason to hope for a different result.

But while the Mets won’t – shouldn’t -- stop hearing about their 2007 collapse until they clinch a division title, Wednesday night’s 6-3, come-from-behind victory was much more indicative of the season New York has had, both against the Phillies and as a whole. Despite New York’s bullpen struggles, 2008 simply hasn’t been 2007. In fact, the 2008 Mets more closely resemble the 2007 Phillies than the 2007 Mets at this point.

In Wednesday night’s game, New York fell behind 3-1 on two early home runs by Ryan Howard and Jason Werth. But oddly enough, this must have been almost comforting to the Mets, who have become accustomed to trying to protect leads against Philadelphia, often with disastrous results. In 2007, the Mets lost their final eight games of the season series with the Phillies, despite holding leads in five of them. In 2008, while the Mets are 10-5 against Philadelphia, they also had leads in four of their five losses.

The Mets did not immediately respond to the 3-1 deficit, but the Phillies, in an echo of New York’s 2007 struggles against Philadelphia, wasted multiple opportunities to extend their lead. Despite Johan Santana on the mound, the Phillies got the leadoff men on in the fourth, fifth and two on to start the sixth--coming up empty each time. Just as New York had so many times against Philadelphia in 2007, the Phillies let the Mets hang around.

In the seventh inning, the Mets replaced Johan Santana with Brian Stokes, a reliever who entered the contest with a career ERA of 5.98. Just as so many Philadelphia relievers with a poor track record had bedeviled the Mets in 2007, Stokes managed to hold the Phillies scoreless. And just as the Mets had in 2007, the Phillies helped with mental errors of their own. This time, it was Jimmy Rollins, who had walked with two outs, stealing second base with Chase Utley ahead in the count, 2-0. The move allowed the right-handed Stokes to simply walk the lefty Utley and pitch to the right-handed, and struggling, Pat Burrell. He subsequently grounded out to end the threat.

The eighth inning just furthered the clear impression that the two teams had simply switched parts of the 2007 script, right down to the inexplicably inept managing. With two out and nobody on in the top of the eighth, New York sent Carlos Delgado to the plate. Delgado had already homered, and had two home runs in six career at-bats against the pitcher, Rudy Seanez. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel had closer Brad Lidge up and ready in the bullpen, a much better pitcher. But Manuel left Seanez in, and like seemingly all of Willie Randolph’s low-percentage gambles last season, it backfired—Delgado’s second home run tied the game.

If Manuel had reservations about asking Lidge to pitch more than one inning, it was understandable—Lidge hadn’t done so all season, and had pitched the night before. But after Carlos Beltran singled, he then brought Lidge into the eighth inning anyway, to intentionally walk Ryan Church, who hasn’t hit a ball with authority since returning from the disabled list, and get to Daniel Murphy. While Murphy had been mired in a 1-for-16 slump, he’d still been having very good at-bats, and the intentional walk made it that much easier for New York to build a lead.

Murphy’s double to right field brought in the lead run, and advanced runners to second and third. Lidge finally got a pop up from Brian Schneider—but the ball found a spot between three fielders, falling just barely in fair territory, and gave New York a 6-3 lead, a huge moment, given the Mets’ Russian Roulette bullpen.

Schneider’s hit recalled a moment almost exactly one year ago—in Philadelphia’s 4-2 victory over New York on August 28, 2007, then-Phillies center fielder Aaron Rowand hit a game-tying, two-out single off of Aaron Heilman that traveled maybe thirty feet up the third base line, staying just fair. The Mets went on to lose that game in ten innings, 4-2, after Willie Randolph decided not to go to his closer Billy Wagner in the tenth inning, and vastly inferior pitcher Jorge Sosa gave up a game-winning home run to first baseman Ryan Howard.

In 2007, the Phillies fell 8 ½ games back of the first-place Mets in June, before rallying with a strong second-half that included an improbable domination of New York, the team they were chasing. The Phillies showed the ability to take a punch and come right back. The Mets did not. Had the Mets won even one of the final eight contests against the Phillies, New York would have ended the season in first place.

In 2008, the Mets fell 7 ½ games back of the first-place Phillies in June, before rallying with a strong second half that has included a domination of Philadelphia. The Mets’ most excruciating losses have come to the Phillies, in part because they happened against the Phillies—though losing a seven-run lead, as New York did on Tuesday night, would be agonizing against any team. The same goes for losing July 4 to the Phillies, 3-2, despite eight excellent innings by Santana, to fall 5 ½ games behind. And it is also true of New York’s July 22 loss to the Phillies, when the Mets entered the ninth leading 5-2, only to see the Phillies put up a six-spot en route to an 8-6 victory.

But after each of these losses, New York has beaten Philadelphia the very next day. Had New York failed to do so even once, it would be the Phillies, not the Mets, in first place.

While the Marlins lost two of three to New York this weekend, Florida still stands just ½ game behind New York and 2 ½ games behind division-leading Philadelphia. But the only major change from 2007 to 2008 was dealing Miguel Cabrera, one of the finest hitters in baseball, for a package that has delivered little to the big league club. And 2007’s holdovers are producing at roughly last season’s rates.

The combination of solid individual performances and an easier-than-average schedule has kept Florida in the race. However, it seems as if a more difficult remaining schedule and simple arithmetic will make it difficult for them to stick around, leaving flawed Philadelphia and New York teams to battle for the division title.

There is nothing statistically that stands out positively for Florida as a team besides home runs. The offense ranks sixth in the National League in runs, even though the infield has combined for 96 home runs by itself—as a team, Florida ranks second. The reason is a simple one—the Marlins do little other than hit long balls. The team is ninth in walks, tenth in total hits. The one offensive category Florida leads the NL in is strikeouts.

Of course, the offense has been far more productive this season than the pitching, which ranks near the bottom of the National League. The team ERA is twelfth, with Marlins pitchers allowing 450 walks on the season, fourteenth. The staff is even eleventh in home runs, though in apparent solidarity with the offense, ranks relatively high—seventh—in strikeouts. The Marlins have scored 18 fewer runs than they’ve allowed.

Yes, the only stat that matters is overall record, and the Marlins have outplayed the sum of their runs scored and runs allowed. What the numbers do indicate, however, is that the Marlins will need to improve their play, or face lesser competition, in order to stay with the Phillies and the Mets. And there is little indication that Florida is in position to do either.

Florida has four pitchers with an ERA+ better than league average: Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, who is returning from injury, and the highly touted prospect Chris Volstad. While Johnson has previous success in the major leagues, Volstad is actually outperforming his season line in AA—his ERA was 3.36 in AA, 2.67 in five major-league starts.

And all four of Florida’s best starters have a better ERA than their component parts should provide, mirroring the team’s overall success—the four have ERAs of 2.67, 3.34, 3.92 and 4.04, while The Hardball Times estimates their XFIP (true performance ERA) at 4.12, 4.06, 4.24 and 5.13—quite a difference. In other words, while Florida’s pitching has been mediocre at best, there is little reason to expect that the same performance moving forward will provide even those results.

In addition, those starts will come against competition that is better than the Marlins have faced thus far, and more difficult than what Philadelphia or New York will face. The Marlins play just 16 of their remaining 44 games against teams more than a game under .500—for the Phillies, the number is 19 of 45; for the Mets, it is 23 of 45. And 10 of the 16 under-.500 games Florida has left are on the road.

Florida has 22 of 44 games left at home, with Philadelphia at 22 of 44, and 23 of 45 home games for the Mets. But Florida and Philadelphia both have trips to the west coast left—New York has just one series west of Atlanta the rest of the way—in Milwaukee.

For a team that finished 71-91 last season, the Marlins have clearly succeeded beyond anyone’s expectations. But with their current talent level, and upcoming heavy lifting, the team will be hard-pressed to finish even 10 games ahead of their 2007 pace—and that will likely place them a distant third in the National League East.

“Last year is last year, and that team knows it,” Rollins said of the Mets following Philadelphia’s 5-2 win on Tuesday. The game was the first between the two clubs since New York squandered a seven-game lead over Philadelphia with 17 games to play at the end of the 2007 season—one of the greatest, most humiliating collapses in baseball history.

The Philadelphia shortstop, who famously declared his Phillies to be “the team to beat” prior to the 2007 season, carried his mastery of the Mets into the new campaign. New York’s first home game in 2008 bore a startling resemblance to the final eight contests between the two teams last season—games in which Rollins often provided the dagger that killed the Mets. Rollins has now hit in each of the nine straight victories over New York, and is hitting .372 in those games.

There’s a disturbing continuity between the end of 2007 and Tuesday’s loss. Certainly, the fan base isn’t healed—the late-arriving crowd had little of the energy normally reserved for opening day. Even when New York pulled ahead of Philadelphia 2-0 on a home run by Carlos Delgado and a bases-loaded groundout by Ryan Church, the reaction was flat. Everyone seemed resigned to an eventual collapse.

That collapse came in two stages, and Rollins was an integral part of both. In the seventh, he began a rally with a one-out single off of Scott Schoeneweis. Shane Victorino followed with a single of his own, and Schoeneweis, whose performances at Shea belie his relative effectiveness, then hit Chase Utley with a pitch to load the bases. Facing slugging lefty Ryan Howard, the lefty specialist induced what should have been an inning-ending double play. But after fielding the grounder, Carlos Delgado threw to second base, hitting the runner Utley and allowing two runs to score. Two batters later, the Phillies took the lead.

Then in the eighth inning, Aaron Heilman walked the leadoff hitter, Carlos Ruiz. So Taguchi bunted Ruiz over. It was notable not only for the play’s success, but because in the bottom of the seventh, Mets catcher Brian Schneider led off with a single, but Endy Chavez failed to get a bunt down, and eventually grounded into a double play.

Up stepped Rollins with a chance to give the Phillies an extra run. And no one doubted what was about to happen, as Rollins drove the first pitch into right field to give the Phils a 4-2 cushion. Two batters later, Rollins scored the Phils’ fifth run. It was insurance they didn’t even need. The Mets went quietly in the ninth on nine pitches, with Jose Reyes, supposed to be the Mets’ answer to Rollins, flying out to end the game.

“He certainly rises to the occasion here,” Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel said of Rollins after the game.

He was asked if the Phillies have actually killed the Mets spirit.

“You mean are we in their heads? I don’t know about that,” Manuel said with a grin that seemed to indicate otherwise.

Rollins refused to speculate on whether the Mets had developed a psychological block when playing the Phillies, either. But he smiled even wider than Manuel when he answered.

“That is a question for them, not a question for us,” Rollins said.

Of course, baseball fates can turn on a dime. Following last season’s home opener at Shea, it was Rollins who had to answer the tough questions, when his eighth-inning error allowed the Mets to take the lead in an eventual 11-5 win over the Phillies.

Asked if he took a different mental approach than last year’s opener, Rollins immediately replied, “You mean the error? That’s baseball. That can happen in game one or game 161.”

He pointed out that earlier in his career, the Phillies got whipped with regularity by the Florida Marlins, with those losses helping to deny Philadelphia a chance at the postseason in both 2003 and 2004.

“The Marlins had our number,” Rollins said. “Then we found a way to start beating them.”

It’s early, Rollins pointed out. “The fans remember everything,” Rollins said. “They remember things from 1950-something. It’s just one game, and we have a lot more to play.”

But if the Mets keep playing like it’s September 2007, the number of games is irrelevant. So Jimmy, have you killed the Mets?

“I never count them out,” Rollins said. “If you do count them out, you’re overconfident or not too smart.”

He added, “Last year, I said what I said. This year, I’ll play and let them do the talking.”

Deadly stuff.

So as Josh Benson wrote, he and the rest of the usual gang are taking the next week off. They've left me with the keys to this mean machine. At present, I'm still figuring out how to work the clutch. Please bear with me if I grind the gears a bit.

Luckily, it's the week before Christmas, so it's bound to be a nice, easy, indictment-free week. Oh... rats. Oh... RATS!

Who am I? I am a former reporter for the Observer, where I covered real estate development and politics and wrote many prescient articles, such as the August 20, 2001 cover story: "Who's Hot in the Mayor's Race? Lonely Peter Vallone!" What have I been doing lately? I am writing a book about a place where politics is a form of warfare, fought between shifting coalitions of religions and tribes, and laden with intrigue and corruption--that is, Uganda. How did I end up doing this job over Christmas? The same way I lost my dad's Oldsmobile: I bet on the Phillies.

So, let's have a fun the Yuletide week. If you have anything to tell me, anonymously or otherwise, please just stuff it in my stocking at andrewrice75@yahoo.com, or post a comment below. I'll be waiting with nervous anticipation.

--Andrew Rice

The New York Times is now carrying official police identification of one of two bodies found at the scene of today's airplane crash as Yankees pitcher Corey Lidle.

CNN had reported:

In a somewhat bitter irony, The Times offers "related articles" on the side which include this Tyler Kepner piece about Lidle and his plane:

- Tom McGeveran

“I’ve spent a lot of time down in the South,” he told The Observer as he walked in with his wife Judith on his arm. “I just got back from New Orleans. It was devastating, but I’m back in New York. I love New York. I’m from New York.”

The black-tie affair, thrown by the Manhattan Institute, Mr. Giuliani’s old cheering section, marked a homecoming of sorts for the 61-year-old former Mayor. During the last several months, he has spent a lot of time under the radar and below the Mason-Dixon Line, quietly building coalitions with conservative Republicans as he prepares for a potential 2008 Presidential bid.

Despite Mr. Giuliani’s absence from the national stage, Tuesday night’s hobnobbing with Tom Wolfe, David Brooks and Mortimer Zuckerman served as a reminder that the former Mayor is a genuine celebrity. He enjoys enormous national name recognition and is widely seen as a strong leader because of the resolve he showed during the Sept. 11 attacks.

But there is also a serious question of how long Mr. Giuliani can remain at the top of national Republican polls (along with his friend, Senator John McCain) while holding starkly unconservative positions on abortion and gay rights. Moderation may work here in New York, but it doesn’t necessarily fly in the red states.

Perhaps for that reason, Mr. Giuliani has been skipping straw polls and lying low to keep those issues—plus his two divorces—buried below the headlines.

But some Republican strategists see in Mr. Giuliani’s recent and conspicuous support of conservative candidates an effort to quell opposition from the Republican right wing should he eventually run.

“It gives him an opportunity to campaign for candidates and neutralize the opposition,” said Arnold Steinberg, a Republican strategist. “Because there will be people who may not be for him, but they won’t be passionately against him.”

And so Mr. Giuliani has dropped in on the Global Pastors of Florida, campaigned with pro-life Senator Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, and signed on for a fund-raiser for Ralph Reed, the co-founder of the Christian Coalition and a candidate for lieutenant governor in Georgia. This weekend, he is holding a cocktail party for a more like-minded Republican, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California.

The busy schedule also allows Mr. Giuliani to stay in the thick of Presidential politics without overexposing himself in the national limelight. By conquering new constituencies with tough talk about national security, Mr. Giuliani is showing conservative America that he is a candidate they can live with, if not love. And that could just be enough if the Republican Party needs a New Yorker to stand up to Mr. Giuliani’s old foe, Senator Hillary Clinton, in a general election.

And so Mr. Giuliani is dusting off some old Hillary barbs.

“We’re both Yankee fans,” Mr. Giuliani said of Mrs. Clinton while campaigning this month with Senator Santorum in the home state of the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates. “I became a Yankee fan growing up in New York. She became a Yankee fan growing up in Chicago.”

But Anthony V. Carbonetti, a top executive at Giuliani Partners, a consulting firm, and a close advisor to Mr. Giuliani, warned that it was too early to determine who would stand “at the other end of the ring,” meaning that it is unclear who will emerge as the Democratic Party’s nominee. He also emphasized that Mr. Giuliani hasn’t decided whether to run or not. He added, however, that if Mr. Giuliani does run, he would find common ground with many in the Republican Party.

“If he decided to go forward, you get more into the record and the accomplishments in New York,” said Mr. Carbonetti, referring to the historic decreases in crime and in welfare cases during Mr. Giuliani’s tenure as Mayor. “I would count on those accomplishments in any Republican primary.”

Still, to Republican candidates running in this year’s midterm election, Mr. Giuliani’s appeal is based on Sept. 11. On April 6, Mr. Giuliani reinforced that image with an appearance at the sentencing trial of Zacarias Moussaoui, and the large majority of his nearly 150 talks in the last two years have addressed national security.

“He has been very active, but not on the typical dog-and-pony shows. He doesn’t do the straw polls in Memphis or the breakfast at the Chamber of Commerce in New Hampshire,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Part of his mystique is that he’s out there as an unknown quantity. And I think he wants to keep that as long as possible.”

That said, Mr. Giuliani is increasing his visibility as the midterm elections loom, and Mr. Carbonetti said he is “committed to campaigning for and raising money for Republican candidates.” Republicans are desperately in need of someone who can help get voters excited, and Mr. Giuliani can pack them in like few others.

Bound for Iowa

“It’s an election year, and he is coming out here to help our candidates, looking to get Republicans in Congress,” said Sarah Sauber, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Republican Party. On May 1, Mr. Giuliani is scheduled to speak at a “Get Motivated” seminar in Iowa that is expected to draw nearly 20,000 to the Wells Fargo Arena. He will also make appearances at fund-raisers for Representative Jim Nussle, a candidate for Governor, and Jeff Lamberti, a candidate for Congress. The Iowa caucuses, of course, are the first important event in the Presidential primary season.

A day after that, Mr. Giuliani goes to Washington, as the featured guest at a fund-raiser for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. According to the committee’s spokesman, Brian Nick, Mr. Giuliani is still a major draw and a “tremendous asset” for Republicans. Mr. Nick said the former Mayor generates large amounts of contributions that “will directly help candidates around the country.”

Mr. Giuliani is also doing well for himself, thanks to lucrative speaking engagements and the business of his Giuliani Partners consulting firm. In 2005, he was named as a partner to the Houston-based law firm Bracewell & Giuliani, which also helped build connections in the South.

“He certainly has star power down here,” said Jay W. Ragley, political director of the Republican Party of South Carolina. Mr. Ragley said that when the time came, voters would have to balance Mr. Giuliani’s less-than-conservative stance on social issues with his leadership qualities, but added that in the meantime, “I think most Republican people want to see him and be near him.”

That sentiment was echoed around the country.

“When it comes to talking to folks about the importance of President Bush’s global war on terror,” said Jeff Sadosky, a spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, “folks nationwide look to Rudy Giuliani.”

As Mr. Giuliani builds a bank of favors to potentially cash in on without suffering the scrutiny of an official Presidential bid, he also has the luxury of keeping his options open. His flexibility can prove maddening to political Sibyls.

“It’s a popular parlor game in Washington, D.C., to handicap Rudy Giuliani’s potential path to a Presidential bid,” said Nelson Warfield, a Republican strategist who is dubious of Mr. Giuliani’s chances. “I think he has no shot in the South once people find out about the Harvey Milk High School for gay teenagers [which was expanded in 2001, during the Mayor’s last year in office], and the panoply of liberal and progressive issues that he has to explain.”

Indeed, evangelist leader Jerry Falwell articulated such opposition recently when he told CNN: “As conservative Christians who take the Bible seriously, we have probably irreconcilable differences on life and family and that kind of thing. I’ll never speak an ill word about [Mr. Giuliani], because he means so much to America. But I couldn’t support him for President.”

Unless, perhaps, if Mr. Giuliani emerges as the lesser of two evils.

Mrs. Clinton, who already has raised more than $30 million for her Senate re-election this year and is widely believed to be preparing for a run for President, turns out to be Mr. Giuliani’s best friend when it comes to his own Presidential ambitions, according to many Republican strategists. The prospect of a Hillary Presidency could distract Southern conservatives from Mr. Giuliani’s more liberal social positions.

“They might fear her so much that they would embrace him,” said Mr. Steinberg.

A combination of Mr. Giuliani’s fame and Mrs. Clinton as an opponent also gives him an edge when it comes to fund-raising.

“Seeing the success he has in raising money for other people, I’m confident he would be successful,” said Mr. Carbonetti, who said he speaks regularly with Karl Rove, the President’s deputy chief of staff responsible for politics, and Ken Mehlman, the chairman of the Republican National Committee. Political observers also think that a Hillary candidacy opens up opportunities for Mr. Giuliani, even if he doesn’t make it through the primary. If a Republican candidate with more traditionally conservative values on social issues ends up facing Mrs. Clinton, there are few more attractive choices for Vice President than Mr. Giuliani.

“Everybody looks for a base to run from,” said Rick Wiley, executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. “Obviously, he would really stymie her position to run up the score in New York. She would have to look elsewhere to pick up those electoral votes.”

Whatever the calculus turns out to be, Mr. Giuliani is causing plenty of chin-scratching and anguish for politicians and analysts around the country.

“He is an interesting candidate, because he is so strong in some areas that conservatives are willing to overlook some of their differences with him,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “Making a decision to run for President is not like any other. I think he is going through a process of deciding what he is going to do.”

S.Jhoanna Robledo follows up on a story The Observer reported in May regarding Phillies slugger Bobby Abreu's real-estate dealings. In April, the home run derby champ closed on a condo at the star-studded One Beacon Court, and now he's just bought a $2.5 million apartment on East 53rd Street.

-Michael Calderone

I was an exceptionally unattractive adolescent, ambivalent about my early physical transformation from tomboy to teenage girl. Skinny and tall, I struggled to grow out my short, boyish haircut. The result was a helmet-like Jew-fro of mythic proportions. I had big square glasses and refused on principle to wear a bra that would restrain my unwanted breasts. I wore ugly clothes handed down from my older boy cousins. In 1986, I discovered baseball, and Darryl-and both made my ugliness a little less hard to take.

I didn't love him because I thought I could be like him, but because loving him helped me to confirm who I was not. Other 11-year-old Philadelphia girls (the ones with straight, straw-blond braids and Guess jeans and pink jelly shoes) loved Madonna and Genesis. They had pictures of Hall & Oates and Wham! on their wall. I had a life-size poster of a tall black man who played baseball for a city I didn't even live in.

He was too tall and sinewy. He was gangly, and occasionally he slouched. His face was never beautiful. I thought we had a lot in common.

But he moved with grace, confidence, his limbs stretched as he ran so fast, leaped over walls, stole balls out of the air that should have been home runs. He knew how to put his awkward body to good use. I was fixated. I cheered for him with all my might. I'd twist my body into the kind of pretzels that young baseball fans everywhere recognize-crossed fingers, toes, legs, arms, eyes, lungs-stretching my muscles and bending my bones to mentally will a ball-a Darryl-hit ball-out of the park. I'd go with my parents and brother to every Met game in Veterans Stadium, and I'd cup my hands around my mouth and shout "Darryl!" in an encouraging way, to drown out the singsongy "Daaaaarryl" that the Philly fans taunted him with.

And his team. Oh, the Mets. Hojo and Mookie and Doc and Sid and sweet, busted-knee Gary Carter. I loved them all. I was a real fan-like a boy, I thought proudly-and I relished the fact that I could read the box scores, recite stats and even tell baseball jokes. Did you hear about how Bill Buckner tried to kill himself by standing in front of a bus? I'd say with pre-pubescent authority (my proficiency as a baseball fan distracted me-and others, I hoped-from my ineptitude as a budding young woman). He couldn't do it; the bus went through his legs.

After 1986, my hormones really kicked in and the Mets dynasty began fading. Lost games began to bring real tears. The slightest Mets joke from my father sent me into dizzying, twirling fits of choked rage. My body, getting fuller and fatter, didn't contort into the same yoga-like positions, and I felt personally responsible for every bobbled ball, every bad pitch.

But even worse was that Darryl started losing. In a big way.

First, he abandoned the team. He left the Mets in 1990 after rejecting their $9 million–plus offer. Unsure of how to react to such betrayal, I decided to stick by him and the team, sure that some day they'd be reunited.

Soon, though, it became clear that I really should have chosen another hero. Maybe my contemporaries had it right all along. Maybe they are better people for having picked better heroes. Hall & Oates may have fallen off the planet around 1990, but that was better than what Darryl was up to-allegedly assaulting his then wife, Lisa, with a deadly weapon; checking himself into alcohol rehabilitation. Sure, George Michael had his scandal. But it was the righteous kind, somehow transforming him into a cultural hero amongst public-bathroom masturbators and the free spirits who support them. That was not the reaction after Darryl was nailed on criminal tax-evasion charges in 1994. Maybe Phil Collins devotees hung their heads in shame during the mid-90's, but he did record that catchy song from Tarzan at just about the time a coke-fueled Darryl was trolling for tail in Tampa. For all you visionaries who knew you wanted to be like Mike as far back as the mid-80's, all I can say is congratulations. I'm sure that, like Mr. Jordan himself, you all lead happy, fulfilling lives of unparalleled productivity.

At some point in high school, I took Darryl's poster off the wall and stopped watching the Mets altogether. I couldn't take the heartache on either front.

This year is the first time in a long time that I've thought seriously about Darryl or his old team. In part, it's because I've become the worst kind of fan. Last year's post-season play brought me back to my television, whooping and weeping with nostalgia as I saw Mookie in his coaching uniform. This fall, I'm back again, though I know I don't deserve to be-I didn't watch a complete game for the whole regular season.

Mostly, I think I've focused on my old hero again because I may be in need of a new one. I suspect I'm entering another awkward stage-actually becoming a grown-up. I'm acutely aware that this time I have no one's poster on the wall to distract me, no one to take the focus off the growing pains that are less severe but, at times, no less ugly.

But I still have a hard time conforming to my peers' choice of heroes. Mia Hamm? Talk about feeling physically inadequate. Gwyneth? Feh. Hillary? Please. The woman has already broken my heart. I do have one friend who's really into Shelley Winters, but that's just plain weird.

I miss Darryl.

I'd love nothing more than to blame him for letting me down, betraying my adoration, starting the slow spiral that led to all my current problems-the gluttony, the smoking, the fact that they keep turning off my phone. But of course, I can't. That stuff is not, technically, Darryl's fault.

But there is something to be learned from the crushing disappointment he handed me. I have to learn to make better choices. Darryl's choices? Not so good. So perhaps I should pay my phone bill instead of stuffing myself with $50 worth of Italian food. Maybe I should be more careful about the men I give my heart to, and maybe I should stop smoking. Maybe, at 11, I should never have put my faith in a man who showed no signs of being a good role model.

On the last night of the National League Eastern Division series, I jumped up and down with a cigarette in one hand and a beer in the other as I watched this sweet-looking man named Benny Agbayani belt a 13th-inning, game-winning home run over the wall at Shea Stadium. I studied this short, round man chugging around the bases. He looked like a wholesome sort. Unlikely to solicit prostitutes or do a lot of coke. Maybe he could be my hero, I thought suddenly. But then he powered home and was embraced by the writhing doughnut of ecstatic Mets, jumping up and down, looking like nothing more than a pack of jubilant 11-year-olds.

No, I figured. I don't want to risk it. At the moment, I don't think I can take on the responsibility of a new hero.

Woooooosh! Glug-glug-glug-glug.

The rushing gurgle of a fully loaded commode warbled over the phone line from Los Angeles. Jack Black and Kyle Gass, the self-proclaimed "hot, young, sexy, rocking geniuses" who make up the heavy metal-folk duo known as Tenacious D (and who will be performing "back-to-back cardiac" shows at the Bowery Ballroom on April 18 and 19), were comparing weights. For the second time in an hour, Jack had flushed the toilet.

"Ky-uhl," said Jack.

"Jesus, see a doctor, dude," said Kyle.

This wasn't just potty talk. This was big. After eking out an existence on the fringes of rockdom and Hollywood since 1989, Messrs. Black and Gass, comedic actors by trade, have recently experienced an accelerated stretch of good fortune: Their shortlived HBO series, Tenacious D , chronicling the exploits of two guitar-slinging open-mic-night losers (i.e. them), achieved cult-status with only three half-hour episodes in spring 1999. Then Jack hit it big playing Barry, John Cusack's rageaholic assistant record store clerk in High Fidelity, and signed a million-dollar deal to star in the comedy Saving Silverman later this year. And Kyle snagged a small but memorable role in Stillwater , Cameron Crowe's upcoming film about the 70's rock scene. They're even scheming a Tenacious D movie. But in the D cosmology, a far more historic moment had just transpired.

"Holy shit, Kage, I'm 218!" screamed Jack.

"What? Way to go!" replied Kyle.

"Given, I just took a steamy dumpages. But I'm also holding the phone."

"I was 216 this morning," said Kyle.

"Ohhhh, you got me, you bastard," Jack said. He actually sounded dejected. "Kyle recently overtook me in the battle of the bulge."

So, what is it about fat guys and humor?

"Well, there's a connection there because fat people are filling a void, and that void is also fed by people laughing at them," said Jack. "So, why are they funny often? Because people are pointing and laughing at them from a very early age, saying, 'Look at the fat-ty.' And the only way they can turn that into a plus is to say, 'Yeah man, look at how fuckin' crazy fatty I am, though!'" Pause. "And you can fuckin' print that in your fuckin' psychological journal."

This is what you get when you encounter Tenacious D: raw honesty. Emphasis on the raw. In person, on TV, or on the phone, Kyle Gass and Jack Black–a.k.a. K.G. and J.B., a.k.a. Kage and Jables–do not front. Jack, the explosive half of the pair, vacillates between a calm stoner drone and the volatile ravings of man who has lost his Thorazine prescription. Kyle is the straight man, calm and subtle. They satirize everything: the rock industry, the "alternative" scene, heavy metal anthems and cheesy folk balladry from the 70's, Hollywood, television and themselves. They write complex songs full of intricate melodies and harmonies, not just three-chord bashfests, and they thrive on imbecilic humor. Does it ever get confusing?

"Pretty much all the time," Kyle said.

"I don't know what the hell we are," Jack said.

Last year, the D played the House of Blues at Mandalay Bay Resort in Las Vegas as part of a concert series called the Miller Genuine Draft Blind Date Contest. They'd performed in Vegas before, opening for Beck, so they weren't fazed. But now they were opening for Stone Temple Pilots in front of a crowd of about 1,500 drunk and horny post-adolescents.

Jack: "Obviously, these people are going, [switches to moron voice], 'Man. Haw . I won the fuckin' contest! Who's it gonna be? Dude, I bet it's gonna be Korn. Maybe it'll be Limp Bizkit.' [Switches back.] Or whoever they're hopin' for. Who knows? None of them are hoping it's the D. All of 'em are expecting someone huge. And, um, before the curtains were done opening, there was a chorus of boos. A chorus! So loud, the booing, I could hardly hear myself singing. And then the shower of beer started. They were throwing beer. And then cups. And then ice . And then it was like: You know what? We can't stop ."

Kyle said he tried to scope out anyone who might be "down with the D" in the throng. He found one guy, but it turned out he was just making weird hand gestures and calling them fags.

"There were people on shoulders screaming at us about how much they hated us and how lame we were," Jack said. "And people were getting thrown out for being too mean, even though it really seemed as if it was all planned so they could have fun hating someone . We finished. And we were fired."

Still, they soldier on. They refer to their upcoming Bowery Ballroom appearances as a "fiery hoop" they have to jump through to get the attention of the record industry. And, as always, they seem to get their inspiration to "reign supreme"–another major tenet of the D cosmology–from their own asses. The world revolves around Tenacious D's collective ass.

"It's like, the song literally plops out of our asses," Jack said.

"Not often," said Kyle. "Certainly not often enough."

"No, usually it's a stinky shit," Jack admitted. "But once in a while, a golden egg plops out, and it's like: 'I can't believe this came out our asses.'"

"As much as I think there's maybe some craft involved," said Kyle, "no, apparently not. I'm wrong. There is no craft. Poop it out."

–Jay Stow e

Flushing Beauty

It was 9:46 P.M., April 17, in the middle of the sixth. Shea Stadium was as quiet and gloomy as a hospital. Sure, the Mets were up 2-1, but the sky was black, the wind was cold and the baseball was perfunctory. On the concrete ramp outside section 7 in the upper deck, four fans gathered to smoke cigarettes. One of them hocked a loogie onto the roof of the ticket office below. A crumpled brown plastic Cracker Jacks bag blew end over end, down the ramp. In one way, there beneath the blue rampway lights, the Cracker Jacks bag attained the kind of transcendence of that damn white plastic bag in American Beauty . But then again, in another, more accurate way, it didn't.

For the four smokers, and for the 27,787 other souls who had bothered to show up, the electric nights of last fall's playoff run seemed like something out of another century–which of course they are.

This Mets team is off to a horrible start. The other day they lost to the Phillies- the Phillies –the team with the previously more horrible start than even their own. The pitching is erratic, the hitting is nonexistent. Rickey Henderson is pissed off, free agent compromise Todd Zeile is flailing over at first base, and outfielder Darryl Hamilton is already on injured reserve, mulling retirement. Something must have happened to the team over there in Japan: they became the same old Mets again.

Back at Shea, it was the bottom of the sixth and Met shortstop Rey Ordonez had just struck out. The boos welled up from the crowd. Two batters later, Jon Nunnally, acquired from the Boston Red Sox over the summer, struck out, too, and another surge of boos filled the upper deck.

Geez, it's only April, and it already feels like Milwaukee around here. The apple in the outfield is dented. What you have in Flushing in April is an average team playing in a lousy stadium on cold night after cold night.

But what the hell, let's go Mets.

–William Berlind