James Brolin and Barbra Streisand.

“Mirella Freni and Pavarotti shared the same wet nurse,” former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said last week at the Eighth Annual Opera News Awards at The Plaza, sharing a bit of opera trivia before giving the Metropolitan Opera Guild’s distinguished achievement award to the supreme Modenese soprano. “Just imagine the Freudian connotations,” hizzoner continued. “Mirella’s mother liked to say, ‘Guess who got all the milk?’”

Triggering uproarious laughter and a few gasps.

The next morning, Shindigger was still giggling at the Waldorf Astoria for the 2013 Matrix Awards, hosted by Joan Rivers, where pioneering women in media and communications such as Kara Swisher, Joanna Coles, HSN’s Mindy Grossman and Bonnie Hammer received Tiffany & Co. medallions from the likes of Barry Diller, Iman and Ryan Seacrest. Another legendary songstress, five-time Tony winner Audra McDonald, was celebrated as well.

“She has the voice of an angel,” Council Speaker Christine Quinn declared as she bestowed a Matrix on Ms. McDonald. Though it was Ms. Rivers who got in the last line—“Dessert was good, but not worth the calories!”—before hobbling off the stage.

All in all, it proved to be as much of a musical week as a comedic week for Shindigger, though, highlighted by The Film Society of Lincoln Center’s 40th anniversary Chaplin Awards Gala, which honored the epic career of Barbra Streisand and featured a mega-star-studded array of delicious surprises.

“Boy am I excited, this is such a treat!” exclaimed our first surprise, Liza Minnelli, after a standing ovation. “When I saw Barbra perform, I went nuts,” she raved. “I said Mama—it’s just unique and was splendid. She had chutzpah! The real deal!”

Grabbing the mic and a nearby director’s chair, Ms. Minnelli winced, “Now I have to sit down. My back is killing me.” And then she performed such Streisand signatures as “What Did I Have That I Don’t Have?” and “Isn’t This Better” from Funny Lady. (Ms. Streisand would quip later that she had forgotten the former was one of her songs.)

Next, former recipients Catherine Deneuve and Michael Douglas graced the stage.

“Michael and I are very pleased to give you congratulations on this well-deserved honor, and happy birthday!” the French siren purred.

“You were a master,” gushed Mr. Douglas. “It has been my joy over the years to watch you as an artist on stage, and it has been equally as meaningful to be your friend.”

One after another, immortal film stars and celebrity performers paid their respects to Empress Barbra, who sat perched with husband James Brolin in box four, first tier, on the right side of Avery Fisher Hall. George Segal, Amy Irving, Kris Kristofferson and Blythe Danner all said a few words, video felicitations came from Robert Redford and Omar Sharif, and there were musical performances by trumpeter Wynton Marsalis (“Hello Dolly”), songwriter Alan Bergman (“The Way We Were”), and a surprise finale by Tony Bennett.

“She asked me why she should do it,” Ben Stiller said drily as he recounted how he convinced the diva to take her role in Meet the Fockers. “Finally, we worked out the creative details, or as she calls it, ‘the money.’”

The funnyman then introduced his Chappaqua neighbor, who just so happens to be the 42nd president of the United States of America.

“I don’t know why, I just never got the nerve to call him up and hang,” Mr. Stiller laughed. “Hey, Bill, wanna come over and order some vegan pizza and play some video games? Watch House of Cards on Netflix?”

President Bill Clinton, taking in the crowd’s awe and rousing applause, played with the wisecrack. “Ben, I accept your offer, and pretty soon House of Cards will be back on,” the former president pledged. “Meanwhile, we can watch a replay of Meet the Fockers and see Barbra give sex advice to old people—like me!”

Awkward laughter filled the hall as the president quickly mentioned his wife, Hillary, and then continued:

“I am very grateful to The Film Society of Lincoln Center for allowing me, on its 40th anniversary, to give the Chaplin Award to my friend. A friend of my family’s and one of the most gifted and big-hearted people I have ever known.”

President Clinton commended Ms. Streisand for her film work, her philanthropic leadership and her many talents.

“When I was president, we had a small list of members of Congress that we called the ‘Just Say Yes List,’” because they were so dogged that you knew you were gonna give in to them sooner of later,” he recalled. “That’s the way Barbra is. In the end, I would say yes.”

And then it was finally time for Ms. Streisand to take the stage.

“My dear Mr. President, thank you for taking the time to be with us here tonight,” she began.

The divine Ms. Streisand spoke about the power of art in trying times and shared numerous anecdotes from her treasured past. “Ever since I can remember, I’ve been called bossy and opinionated,” Ms. Streisand admitted. “Maybe that’s because I am?”

The audience chuckled, and Ms. Streisand raised her voice: “Three cheers for bossy women!” she said.

And through the standing, roaring gala patrons, we swore we saw Mr. Clinton’s wife, in the third row, beaming.

Shootings are up by more than 25 percent over the past four weeks compared with the same period last year. New Yorkers clearly have scandalously easy access to firearms despite the city’s strict gun laws, and far too many of those firearms are in the hands of murderous thugs who think nothing of opening fire in the presence of innocents, including children. A Brooklyn mother of 12, Zurana Horton, was cut down in the Brownsville section of Brooklyn the other day. She died while protecting one of her children from gun violence that remains the curse of so many of the city’s less fortunate neighborhoods.

The New York Police Department, which has been so successful in bringing the city’s murder rate to historic lows, currently faces more than a few challenges, not least of which is maintaining order in downtown Manhattan while demonstrators exercise their constitutional right to protest without end and with no apparent goal in mind. What’s more, there are a lot fewer officers on the streets these days. Thanks to budget cuts, head count in the N.Y.P.D. is down to about 35,000. In the mid-1990s, as Rudolph Giuliani was ramping up his anticrime strategy, police head count was 41,000.

It falls to current Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly, then, to do more with less. That is no small assignment, given the extraordinary difficulties of policing in the 21st century. Under Mr. Kelly’s watch, the N.Y.P.D’.s mission has expanded to include counterintelligence and counterterrorism as the threats to public safety have gone global since 9/11. More recently, the commissioner’s troops have been called on to keep a rein on the passionate anarchy of the Occupy Wall Street crowd.

The police have come in for no small amount of criticism in performing these tasks. Some of it may be justified, but that shouldn’t get in the way of a larger truth: the city’s prosperity depends on the competence, creativity and, yes, toughness of New York’s Finest.

That important fact doesn’t excuse unprofessional behavior or violations of civil liberties. But it should remind us of how much we rely on an agency that has suffered significant cuts in manpower and resources in recent years.

Ray Kelly’s tenure as police commissioner has earned him far more praise than criticism, and rightly so. In fact, there is talk that he may yet run for mayor in 2013. His candidacy surely would introduce a dose of competency into a lackluster field. But first the commissioner must ensure that this month’s string of shootings becomes a statistical aberration. The city cannot afford to take even a single step back toward the bad old days of murder and mayhem.

This miniwave of violence already has claimed too many tragic victims.

Senators Schumer and Gillibrand will both be in attendance. Congressman Nadler, who represents ground zero, will also be there. As will Republican Congressman Peter King, who chairs the Homeland Security Committee. King has frequently criticized the president in the past, but has expressed nothing but praise for his handling of the strike that resulted in the death of Osama bin Laden on Sunday.

Mayor Bloomberg is also expected to attend, and there's a possibility--unconfirmed, of course--that Andrew Cuomo will make the trip from Albany.

There might be some formerly-elected officials too. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani told Politico he's considering the invitation, and a spokesman for former Governor George Pataki told the Daily News he'd like to attend, if he can get back in time from a trip to Texas.

It was just after 2 a.m., and young, drunk revelers were belting out chants of "U-S-A" and bellowing the Pledge of Allegiance. They waved large American flags. One woman crowd-surfed as professional photographers with bulky cameras took shots in her direction.

Ms. Cunningham said the celebration was the "closest thing to being insanely happy, united."

Around 4 a.m., police officers began lining the streets with metal barricades, gently prodding the crowd into a narrow section of sidewalk, making way for television trucks to stake out their positions with lanky light poles and miles of thick electric cables.

By the time the sun came up, those cathartic cheers had been replaced by something more sober and complicated, a struggle to make sense of what exactly an introspective and victimized city should feel at the death of a remote tormentor.

But for New York's elected officials, the mix of emotions was particularly public, as they tried to balance the elation of the occasion with the proper decorum, and the remembrances of those who died with the words of caution that something tragic could yet happen again.

"It's not a celebration; it's a little more somber," said Senator Charles Schumer just after 8 a.m. in the corner of a Sheraton ballroom, where Mr. Schumer was smiling broadly as aides set up a podium for a hasty press conference, before the senator's long-scheduled speech to the Association for a Better New York. The night before, Mr. Schumer had been at home, working on the computer with his wife and daughter when he saw that the president would be holding a press conference, and immediately suspected it was about Osama bin Laden. Mr. Schumer said it was a great victory for the West, and called it "a turning point in the war on terror," on par with "a Saratoga or a Gettysburg."

After taking a few questions, Mr. Schumer posed with a copy of the Daily News, which encouraged bid Laden to 'Rot In Hell' on its cover. "I think this is what people are thinking even if they're not saying it," Mr. Schumer said. "And I'm sure the family members are thinking it." Before his speech, Mr. Schumer pointed to the flag pin on his lapel, which he began wearing on Sept. 12, 2001. "I've never felt prouder to wear this flag than I feel this morning," he said. The crowd of business executives gave a standing ovation.

At 11 a.m., Rudy Giuliani was standing on the corner of Vesey Street, as sober tourists strolled by with maps and cameras. Over his left arm was an American flag, folded into a neat square. He had on a red and blue tie, and an American flag pin on his left lapel. His right shoe was untied.

Earlier in the morning, in phone interviews with Matt Lauer and Politico, Mr. Giuliani had said he didn't feel much like celebrating. The death of bin Laden--shot in the head by Navy Seals who infiltrated his luxurious Pakistani compound--wasn't how Mr. Giuliani hoped to see the story play out. He recalled telling President Bush back in 2001: "Let me execute him."

"I really did mean it," Mr. Giuliani told reporters at ground zero. "There is a sense of anger and there is a sense of revenge that isn't the most noble sentiment, but it's a real one. And I think you just have to be honest about your emotions." He added, "He deserved to die."

In a series of interviews with television stations lined up along Vesey Street, facing the ground zero construction site, Mr. Giuliani praised President Obama, but made sure to credit President Bush, too. "This doesn't happen in a day. This happens over a period of time, over a period of years," he told CNBC. "Our last two presidents deserve a lot of credit. ... Our two presidents, this one and the last one, look very good today."

By 1 p.m., Mayor Bloomberg was joined on an elevated platform inside the ground zero construction site. About 20 television cameras pointed at the mayor's podium; the tall, incomplete 1 World Trade Center was in the background. Three times Mr. Bloomberg noted that bin Laden was "dead" but New York's spirit was not.

"Our assumption is, bin Laden's disciples would like nothing better than to avenge his death by another attack in New York," said Police Commissioner Ray Kelly. "That is our operating premise. And we started taking precautions yesterday evening."

How exactly bin Laden's death would impact the city was not entirely clear. His Al Qaeda network had, by most accounts, diminished greatly in the decade since 2001. "Bin Laden directed here and was either the planner or the inspiration for a dozen plots in the city, including the Brooklyn Bridge, the subway system, bringing explosive material through shipping containers," Mr. Kelly said.

But he was not specific about bin Laden's connection to the recent plots.

"I think it's unclear as to what his latest influence was," the commissioner said. "Obviously, he was in a building, we're told, that had no Internet, no communications capacity of its own. So whatever he was doing, he was doing through couriers. But in terms of his immediate role, let's say in the last six months or a year, I couldn't tell you."

Throughout the afternoon, members of the city's far-flung Congressional delegation began to make their way south to D.C., where votes were scheduled for Monday evening, after a two-week recess. Congressman Eliot Engel spent the morning at J.F.K., after his overnight flight from Israel landed at 5 a.m. He had heard the news somewhere over the Atlantic, when the pilot announced bin Laden's death, to cheers from the cabin. "I am glad we killed him," said Mr. Engel, who cautioned that bin Laden's death alone wouldn't cripple Al Qaeda, nor bring the victims back. "At least we'll never hear that miserable voice or see that miserable face again."

"I'm happy that he was eliminated, because to have just captured him would have just invited every terrorist organization in the world to take hostages, and demand his release, and behead people and things like that," he added. A number of his New York colleagues had been making the rounds on television, and for a delegation often derided as painfully left-leaning by other parts of the country, they were roundly supportive of the president's action.

Congressman Jerrold Nadler, who had, in the past, questioned the president's executive action in Libya, called the strike "simple justice," and defended the president's prerogative on Good Day New York. "Any sovereign country is responsible for making sure that its territory is not used to attack another country," he said. "And if your territory is used to attack another country, you have the responsibility of stopping it."

But the delegation was careful not to preach closure.

"I think every time a victim hears the word 'closure,' they kind of say nothing will ever close," said Long Island Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy, who lost her husband in a similarly senseless attack on the Long Island Railroad. "Because there's always an anniversary, always a holiday, that they'll miss their loved ones."

Late Monday evening, the White House announced that President Obama would travel to New York on Thursday to pay his respects at ground zero. But, on Tuesday morning, save for a dozen cameras clustered off a corner of the site, there were only hints of what had happened over the past 36 hours.

A couple of PATH commuters slowed down to read messages scrawled in brightly colored chalk.

"Justice Not Vengeance."

"No More Funding Pakistan / Cut Them Off"

"In Memory of Maurita Tam, 99th Floor."

A few fresh bouquets were stuck into the fence and, on one section, someone had taped pages from Monday's tabloids. Most of it went unnoticed as swarms of people hurried past. "As you can see, it's pretty much back to normal," said a police officer standing watch.

apaybarah@observer.com, rpillifant@observer.com

Giuliani heard the news that Osama bin Laden had been killed while watching Fox News last night and told Politico that he didn't feel much like celebrating. Giuliani also spoke to Matt Lauer this morning, praising President Obama's courage for ordering such a difficult strike and saying he was "satisfied but not elated," while reminiscing about the time he told President Bush he'd like to execute bin Laden.

"The anger is still the same as the day it happened," Giuliani told reporters at Ground Zero.

Giuliani said he was pleased that bin Laden was dead, but acknowledged the possible threats it might cause New York City.

"I kind of sleep easier long term, not as well short term," he said, "meaning long term I think this will help us a a lot...but short term, there are more dangers."

Here's Giuliani's conversation with Lauer this morning:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The news was reported this morning by the New Hampshire Union Leader.

Last month, Giuliani spoke to the local G.O.P.'s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, but aides were careful to characterize that visit as repaying some old debts to friends and supporters.

But the next visit would seem to give a greater indication that Giuliani is still seriously considering the race. The parties hosted by Lamontagne, who lost a Senate bid last year, are expressly designed to host potential presidential candidates. Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum have already attended events there; Herman Cain is doing one next week; and Newt Gingrich is booked for later in May.

In his remarks last month, Giuliani promised he had learned a lesson from his disastrous 2008 run, and assured the crowd that--if he were to run again--he would engage in the kind of down-home retail campaigning New Hampshirites have come to expect. Last time around, he effectively pulled out of the state and finished a distant fourth.

"Sometimes a candidate doesn't deserve a second chance," he wrote.

Cullen expressed many of the same complaints that others mentioned in my story last week--that Giuliani ran an above-the-fray campaign in a state that expects a lot of personal attention. As Cullen put it:

Giuliani's was the Potemkin Village of presidential campaigns: What looked like a campaign was just a facade for the cameras and national media. It was artifice, disrespectful of the process and the voters. Perhaps this is what campaigns in New York City are, where everything plays out on TV and in the tabloids, where no grassroots grow in the concrete jungle.

Most of the voters and political experts who I spoke with seemed to think the electorate could give Giuliani another chance, provided he was willing to put in the gripping-and-grinning required of New Hampshire candidates. At the Manchester G.O.P.'s Lincoln Reagan dinner last week, the former mayor did just that, working the room back and forth, to make sure everyone got a handshake and a photo.

But Cullen is not so forgiving. He mentions meeting Giuliani a half-dozen times and the mayor never appearing to have remembered him. Cullen seems to have taken it personally, and says he's written off the former mayor as a viable candidate.

Most of us know the experience of having had a bad first date. Usually both participants recognize it didn't work out, but sometimes the guy doesn't get the message, calls again, and needs to be told bluntly: Sorry, Rudy. You had your chance, and much as we respect your resume, we're just not interested in going out again.

With Mitt Romney leading the primary polls by a mile in New Hampshire, and Barack Obama in the White House, the former mayor and dud presidential candidate of 2008 wanted to talk about leadership.

"This president has been a failure in just about every single thing he's done," Mr. Giuliani told the 100 or so die-hard Republicans who had come for the Manchester G.O.P's annual Lincoln Reagan dinner. "He has ruined our economy. He is ruining our health care."

As he got rolling, the arms of his dark suit gesticulated wildly around his emerald green tie. He called attention to his bullet points with a prodding finger, leaned on the podium, stepped out from beside it, removed and replaced his glasses for comic effect and, at one point, raised a big outstretched palm and brought it crushing down upon our liberties.

On the president's handling of Libya, he said he had "never witnessed a worse case of presidential decision making. Or lack of decision making. Or conduct of foreign policy. Ever."

And he criticized the president for leaving it to Congress to hash out the health care bill, and for not leading enough on energy policy. "Because he's a follower," Mr. Giuliani said. He mocked a stutter to capture Mr. Obama's perceived hesitancy to implementing a no-fly zone, which, in Mr. Giuliani's telling, he did only after being convinced by France and the United Nations.

"No fly zones are r-r-r-r-eally, really hard," he said, to big laughs.

Four years after he abruptly pulled out of the nation's first primary, in favor of a big-state strategy that ended in disaster, Mr. Giuliani was back in New Hampshire, promoting himself as a potential presidential contender and aggressively trying to make amends.

For Mr. Giuliani--who last year passed on rumored runs for the governor's mansion and the Senate--any last hope for higher office would have to begin here, with the good people of the Granite State, where his profile as a moderate Republican with a reputation for leadership could still resonate, at least in theory.

Building some fresh buzz around the Giuliani brand would seem to be a no-lose proposition, what with his slew of self-titled businesses, but there are those who think Mr. Giuliani could do much better than that.

"If he runs, he stands a strong chance of either winning, or coming in second place," said Andrew Smith, who directs the Granite State Poll at the University of New Hampshire, where the latest survey has Mr. Giuliani running a distant second to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

On Friday night, Mr. Giuliani's pitch had a particular New Hampshire bent. He avoided mentioning the social issues on which he and the state's Republicans might diverge--in 2008, he had tried to split the difference with the G.O.P. base on abortion, gay marriage and gun control by casting them as issues best left to the states--and opted instead to praise the state's Tea Party and to portray resistance to the administration's health care bill as a "Live Free or Die" struggle against tyranny.

"I've always believed the emotion of the Tea Party is because it reaches into something deeper in an American's soul, which is, 'They're taking our freedom away,'" he told The Observer in a back room before the speech, in between posing for pictures with the evening's V.I.P.'s, who had paid $100 for the privilege.

"This president appears to want to have an America where Americans have less to say about their future, and the government has more to say about your future. And if you know New Hampshire, you know that's a very powerful theme in New Hampshire. Live free or die." He rocked back in his chair and let out a commanding laugh. "Wow, that's a powerful thought, right?"

Mr. Giuliani said he might even be capable of carrying the Tea Party mantle. "I think if the Tea Party looks at my record, they would find a lot of things to like," he said.

Asked if his disastrous showing last time--when he leveraged his front-runner status into one lone delegate--might hurt his chances, Mr. Giuliani shrugged.

"We'll see," he said. "We'll see. I don't know the answer to that yet. When I know the answer to that, I'll tell you--when I'm running or not running."

It's easy to forget, but in the fall of 2007, Mr. Giuliani was virtually tied with Mr. Romney in New Hampshire, and was constructing a campaign infrastructure that seemed capable of capturing the first primary state from its neighboring governor. But as Senator John McCain roared back to life and began to siphon away the state's moderate voters, Mr. Giuliani's campaign shifted its time and money to focus on the bigger prizes in Florida and California. He finished a distant fourth in New Hampshire, trailing even Mike Huckabee, with just 8 percent of the vote.

On Friday, it was clear the mayor had some making up to do.

"I'm not a political strategist, but I know those of us who wore our emotions on our sleeves really wanted him to stick around a little longer," said Donna Waterman, a 2008 campaign volunteer, who came to see Mr. Giuliani, gave him a big hug and said she would work for him again.

But Mr. Giuliani had been having problems even before he left.

"He kind of came in and went out," said Cliff Hurst, who chaired the local party in 2004 and 2005. "People didn't have a chance to have a conversation and shake hands. They're really used to being pampered and getting a lot of attention, and I'm not sure they got that."

"I saw him in person a couple of time and was just kind of stunned with some of the things he came in with, like two bodyguards in front of him walking through the Rotary Club, as if somebody was going to reach out and stab him with a butter knife," said Mr. Smith, the University of New Hampshire pollster.

"The emcee in both places was instructed to say, 'Now the mayor is very busy, can you please stay in your seats until he leaves,'" Mr. Smith recalled. "And the only reason those people are there in the first place is to go get their picture taken or get an autograph from the guy. So it's like every room he goes to, he ticks off everybody in the room."

Mr. Giuliani seemed to have learned his lesson.

"If everybody could start sitting down, the Nation's Mayor will stop by each table and say hello," said the emcee, as Mr. Giuliani worked his way across the room, shaking hands and touching shoulders.

"Wanna get a picture?" he asked one man, flashing his gargantuan grin.

In front of the cash bar near the door, a woman posed for a picture and implored him to stick around this time. He joked like he was walking out the door, before telling her, "I'm here for you, I'm not going anywhere."

Whatever hard feelings may linger about Mr. Giuliani's early departure in 2008, to the crowd that came out on Friday night, he will always be the man who led New York City through the depths of Sept. 11.

A few "Never Forget" pins were handed out at the door, and Mr. Giuliani paused from the podium to recognize one of them.

"Thank you for wearing it. I really appreciate that," he said. And he pointed to a middle table to acknowledge Tim Brown, a New York firefighter (and staunch Giuliani supporter) who responded to the attacks and is now suing to stop the proposed mosque near the World Trade Center site.

But, for the man whose message Joe Biden once mocked as "a noun, a verb and 9/11," that was it. If the crowd had come expecting his hit song, it got a few new riffs instead.

Mr. Giuliani presumed, as usual, that his status as a leader during those days could go unstated.

"You kind of get the feeling that people think we're starved for leadership, and he wrote the
book on leadership, literally," said Wayne Semprini, the well-tanned former chairman of the state party, referring to the mayor's book Leadership, which was a best seller when it was published in 2002.

Mr. Semprini ran Mr. Giuliani's 2008 campaign in New Hampshire, and he talked up the possibilities for another run, even as the mayor's aides--including Jake Menges, a former City Hall hand who was traveling with him--went to great pains to emphasize that this was not a campaign trip, and that the boss was simply reconnecting with old friends to whom he still owes a debt of gratitude.

Of course, those old friends happen to be the same ones who could form the foundation for a future run.

On Thursday night, Mr. Semprini hosted a small, 10-person dinner at Ristorante Massimo, a swanky Italian restaurant in downtown Portsmouth, next to a seashell shop that offers psychic readings on the weekends.

The next morning, led by Mr. Semprini, the mayor and a modest entourage had breakfast in Greenland with Sean Mahoney, a former Republican committeeman, and then made their way down to Manchester to have lunch with the current mayor, Ted Gatsas, and a former mayor, Ray Wieczorek, who was one of his staunchest supporters four years ago.

He also met with Ovide Lamontagne, a Tea Party candidate who narrowly lost a Senate primary last year.

"It's hard not to be moved by the passion and the sincerity that he has," said Mr. Lamontagne, who has emerged as a conservative power broker to be courted by the primary candidates.

"I hope he gets in, I really do. I think he will be a wonderful spokesman for the particular approach he would take, which would be a little different than I think most other candidates would bring."

Whether Mr. Giuliani actually wants to do the gripping-and-grinning required of the Granite State is another matter.

On Friday afternoon, he and the entourage pulled in to Blowin' Smoke, an upstairs cigar lounge in a small shopping center in Bedford, where about 30 gentlemen were celebrating the end of the work week in high-backed leather chairs beneath big screen TVs.

Mr. Giuliani bought a medium-bodied Arturo Fuente, hand-rolled in the Dominican Republic, for $10.

"He didn't do a lot of shmoozing," said Tyler Shea, whose family owns the store. "In fact, a lot of the guys thought it was kind of cool, because he just went in the back and threw on Fox News and chilled out and smoked his stogie." (Later, when a Fox News microphone fell from the podium during his speech, Mr. Giuliani returned it to its perch. "Gotta make sure Fox stays up there. It's all we have!" he said.)

At one point, the mayor ducked into Blowin' Smoke's back office to do a phone interview. After an hour or so, he bought a selection of cigars and left. "It was great; we hope he comes back soon," Mr. Shea said.

Unlike some of his potential competitors for the nomination, with their lucrative Fox contracts, Mr. Giuliani wouldn't seem to have much to lose in making another run.

His consulting firm, Giuliani Partners, has scaled back considerably from its halcyon days in the mid-2000s. In 2007, the firm sold off its investment banking arm, Giuliani Capital Partners, and last year it vacated its flagship office at Times Square to share space with his law office, Giuliani & Bracewell, in midtown.

The firm's most ambitious partnership since Mr. Giuliani's election loss--a $500 million to $750 million real estate fund designed--tried to launch into the turbulent market of 2008, but failed to get off the ground.

And, while he is hardly at the apex of his early-2000s popularity, he remains a relatively sought-after public speaker. Last Monday, in Portland, Ore., he delivered his "Perseverance" speech to yet another Get Motivated! business conference, a speech he'll give again in Memphis on March 28, in Grand Rapids on April 14 and in St. Louis on April 27. ("Only $1.95 per person or send your entire office for only $9.95!" says the Web site.)

"If you told me 20 years ago, when he left making a million bucks a year as a lawyer--when a million bucks was a lot of money--and he had young kids, then it was a big deal going back into government," said a source close to him. "At this point in his life, he's got money, he doesn't have young kids anymore--it's a totally different world."

But while Mr. Giuliani ponders, his potential opponents are taking up residence.

Mitt Romney has long had a house in New Hampshire, where he owns a sizable lead on the other hopefuls.

The former House speaker Newt Gingrich was in Nashua, N.H., one day ahead of Mr. Giuliani, for a St. Patrick's Day breakfast and said he'll announce a decision in "five or six weeks."

On Monday, Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, became the first to form an exploratory committee, and he has been spotted of late in a black SUV with New Hampshire vanity plates that read T-PAW.

Last month, Mr. Pawlenty attended a house party thrown by Mr. Lamontagne, who is inviting all the prospective candidates to appear at his home, including Mr. Giuliani.

"I invited him to come and spoke with his people, and they're interested in doing that," Mr. Lamontagne said.

So far, no date has been set, and Mr. Giuliani is vague about when and what will ultimately determine his decision.

"An analysis and a feeling that you could make a big difference and that you have a good chance," he told The Observer. "But you have to come to that point, and I'm not at that point yet."

Just in case he gets to that point, Mr. Giuliani seems to be casting aspersions on the front-runner.

After his speech, he retreated to the same back room, where he cautioned reporters that Mr. Romney might have a difficult time explaining away his health care mandate in Massachusetts.

"For his own good, he's got to straighten this out. This will be a much bigger problem than people realize," he said. "I've had people tell me about it for the last two months, from here. Calling me and telling me. People who might be interested in supporting him. So I think he's got to deal with it. And if he isn't, he's not being realistic."

Mr. Giuliani said "the other candidates" would certainly be making an issue of it. "I'm not sure I'm running, so I'm just raising it."

But the criticism also comes more subtly, and without prompting.

Asked about the Tea Party's role in winnowing the field, Mr. Giuliani said it "will work really well" in New Hampshire, given the overlap between the Tea Party's core values and those of the state's electorate.

"Because a lot of New Hampshire is kind of a reaction to Massachusetts," he explained. "This is a state where people appreciate the fact there isn't an income tax. Many of them moved here from Massachusetts because they felt the government spent too much money, wasn't as efficient."

Mr. Giuliani stood for a few more photographs, then hustled off toward Boston for a charity event the next day.

"I leave very exhilarated," Mr. Giuliani said. "They were a lot of fun. They were terrific. But you know, if you're not running, they always treat you much nicer. You only find out when you actually start running."

rpillifant@observer.com

It was a brief moment of forced gravity during an otherwise rollicking speech at the Manchester Republican Committee's annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, in which the former mayor attacked President Obama for a host of foreign and domestic missteps, and implicitly undercut some of his potential opponents in a 2012 primary.

"Over the last week and a half, I've never witnessed a worse case of presidential decision-making," Giuliani said of the president's treatment of Libya. "Or lack of decision-making. Or conduct of foreign policy. Ever. And I worked for two presidents. And met probably the last five or six."

He tweaked the president for following France's lead in pushing for a no-fly zone, and accused him of being "afraid" and "timid" when dealing with China.

He made fun of the French military, joked that perhaps Obama thought he was dealing with Long Island and that Muammar Gaddafi was Italian--since it "ends in a vowel"--cracked jokes about wind and solar power, and concluded by saying that even Hillary Clinton would have been better than President Obama.

Giuliani also criticized the current Republican front-runner, Mitt Romney, for the health care plan that he passed in Massachusetts. Giuliani said he knew the plan would cost much more than the estimates because he "ran a health care system" in New York, and the cost estimates were never correct.

After the speech, he offered Romney some free advice.

"I do think, and for his own good I say this, he's got to straighten this out. This will be a much bigger problem than people realize," he said.

"The biggest issue deep down is Obamacare. It's not just an economic issue. It's a philosophical issue. It's a freedom thing," he said. "[People] don't feel any differently if the state does it. His answer has to be, 'It was a mistake and I won't do it again.' And maybe even say I'll even go further to try to obliterate it because it turned out to be such a mistake."

But Giuliani, who finished a distant fourth in New Hampshire in 2008 and continues to demur on his own plans for the 2012 campaign, also engaged in a bit of self-criticism.

"If I could go back and re-do what I did four years ago, there are about 45 things i would have done differently, but I would have just spent more time here," he said.

This made him a punch line, the standard by which disastrous White House bids are measured, and no one—least of all Connally himself—ever talked about him running for president again.

Which is why it’s somewhat baffling that Rudy Giuliani, who threw $57 million last year at a crash-and-burn presidential bid that also netted just one delegate, actually seems to have his eyes on a follow-up campaign in 2012.

That’s the takeaway, at least, from the news that the former mayor is poised to challenge appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in next year’s election. The more you consider his possible motives for doing so, the clearer it seems that Rudy is still afflicted with Potomac Fever.

It’s true that the Senate might not be as miserable for Mr. Giuliani as most assume it would be. He wouldn’t be an ordinary freshman: He’d get plenty of television time, and the G.O.P. leadership would probably enjoy showcasing him.

But he has the temperament of an executive, not a legislator, and at 65 years old, he hardly has the time to build up enough seniority to wield any real power in the Senate. Hence the widespread assumption that he must see the Senate not as an end in itself, but as a means to something bigger: the White House.

This is where the Connally parallel comes in. History suggests that the opportunity to run again for the presidency four years after losing is reserved for those who exceeded expectations their first time out—not for the John Connallys of politics.

In 2008, Rudy earned just 3 percent in the Iowa caucuses, 8 percent in New Hampshire, 2 percent in South Carolina and 15 percent in Florida (where he ultimately exerted the most effort—and won his lone delegate). Then he dropped out. And all of this, mind you, came after he’d spent virtually all of 2007 as the national front-runner. So it’s tough to see what he’d be building on heading into 2012.

Mr. Giuliani’s liabilities as a G.O.P. candidate were obvious. There was his well-documented history of cultural liberalism—on abortion, gay rights, immigration and gun control—which he tried, unsuccessfully, to mask. And then there was his style—bland, uninspiring, even soporific. This was a product both of the defensive crouch that his cultural views left him in during most debates and interviews and of his campaign’s fear that the Angry Rudy who polarized New York would rear his head and turn off the G.O.P. electorate. It all added up to one long, unconvincing apology tour.

You’d expect this same basic dynamic to prevail in ’12, and it probably would. If anything, the G.O.P. electorate will be even more conservative on cultural issues and, presumably, more resistant to someone with his history. Plus, his awful ’08 showing stamps him as a loser nationally, whatever happens in the Senate race.

Despite all that, he’d have a little more room to maneuver in the run-up to the election. The press might not fixate as much on his old cultural liberalism. Immigration should be far less prominent an issue. And with Barack Obama in the White House, Republicans may be more receptive to electability arguments.

It’s worth remembering that—contrary to the narrative that emerged from ’08—Rudy didn’t set out to ignore all of the early contests in ’08 and to stake his fate on the late January Florida primary. Actually, he was poised in the fall of ’07 to make a serious push in New Hampshire, where a Republican of his unusual ideological makeup can still succeed. A win there would have made him far more credible in Florida (and elsewhere), and then who knows?

If he runs and wins against Kirsten Gillibrand next year, this is what Mr. Giuliani’s boosters will be saying. To anyone who’s listening.

skornacki@observer.com