the lead indicator

Sam Chandan.

Pushing Past City’s Core Investments

In spite of a slowdown over the third and fourth quarters, transaction activity in Manhattan nearly doubled the prior year’s tally during 2011. Surpassing $20 billion in new equity and debt, investment in support of property trades was still only a fraction of the market’s pre-recession peak. But recast in terms of sustainable activity, volume is quickly approaching the nominal level of sales from the prior decade. With a finite set of assets available to esurient investors, prices have necessarily recovered the lion’s share of their losses. As confidence in the underlying economic recovery firms, should well-heeled investors make more concerted efforts to invest beyond the core properties that have dominated activity thus far?
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the lead indicator

Sam Chandan.

The Gordian Knot of Interest Rate Policy

The Federal Open Market Committee recommitted to its near-zero interest rate policy at its meeting in late January. Building on last summer’s announcement of a specific time horizon for its current level of accommodation, the committee pushed the expected date for tightening from next year to late 2014.

Why the change? Based on the Fed’s current assessment, economic and financial market conditions warrant a historically low Fed Funds target rate for at least another two years. The implications for commercial real estate are difficult to overstate given the critical role that low interest rates have played in the sector’s recovery. Read More

the lead indicator

Sam Chandan.

New Projects on the Horizon Betray Sluggish Construction Growth

Announcements of large-scale development projects in some of the nation’s cardinal markets are fueling a shared illusion: space is already running tight. Most large metros can boast at least one submarket where supply constraints are choking renewed growth, entreating developers to be munificent. In a very few cases, prices have climbed far enough that developers are responding in kind. Read More

the lead indicator

Blitt - Chandan

Global Slowdown, European Recession, Will Qualify US Growth Prospects

Even as measures of business and consumer optimism have improved in the United States, the global economy has struggled to extricate itself from a state of crisis. Fueling current headwinds, Europe’s ongoing condition of political paralysis has meant a lack of progress in addressing the Continent’s ripening sovereign debt crisis. Where progress has been made in adopting austerity plans and deleveraging bank balance sheets, these necessary steps have impinged on near-term growth. The U.S. economy is not impervious to negative developments among our major trading partners, nor is credit availability unaffected by disruptions to the global financial system. In spite of improving economic data, potential spillovers from diverging global growth trends remain ensconced as qualifiers of the domestic outlook. Read More

Lead Indicator

Sam Chandan.

Are Financing Costs Set to Rise?

Like manna from heaven, historically low Treasury rates have been a veritable boon to the multifamily and commercial real estate industry and one of the key drivers of the recovery. The benefits have crossed a range of market participants. Banks and special services have taken advantage of low underlying rates when modifying loans, allowing many borrowers with negative equity to meet principal and interest obligations without their having to write down principal balances. Read More

the lead indicator

Blitt - Chandan

Five Trends That Will Shape New York

The daily buffeting of confidence in the recovery’s resilience has demanded an unusual focus on immediate threats to commercial real estate investment conditions. Even in New York City, where improvements in property values and capital inflows have clearly outpaced peer markets, the vagaries of developments in Europe as well as conditions closer to home have necessarily called for consideration in meetings of investment and credit committees. Read More

the lead indicator

Sam Chandan

The Retail Recovery: A Work in Progress

Along the most coveted urban corridors and across core regional malls owned by the Real Estate Investment Trusts, retail property fundamentals improved in the third quarter.

Modest but observable gains in occupancy rates, rents and sales per square foot in these segments of the retail market contrast with broader metrics, however.

Measured across lifestyle and Read More

the lead indicator

Sam Chandan

Banks’ CRE Default Rates Fall But Balances Still Being Drawn Down

In its latest report on bank lending and loan performance trends, released this morning, Chandan’s tally of bank call reports shows that default rates on bank-held commercial real estate and multifamily loans fell in the third quarter, to 3.75 percent. The decline of 19 basis points (bps), from 3.94 in the second quarter, represents a further improvement in this key measure of banks’ legacy loan performance, which peaked at 4.42 percent in Q310. The result is consistent with our assessment that banks’ commercial real estate default rates plateaued late in 2010 and will continue to ameliorate barring a negative macroeconomic shock.

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the lead indicator

Sam Chandan.

Core Investors Unfazed by Global Crisis and Domestic Imprudence

The potential for disruptions to global financial stability increased heading into last weekend. In Europe, both Germany and the European Central Bank rejected calls to expand the bailout to include large-scale bond purchases, insisting instead that the latter’s credibility depends upon its prioritization of price stability.

At a gathering of the Frankfurt Banking Conference, German Bundesbank president and European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Friday that “the economic costs of any form of monetary financing of public debts and deficits outweigh its benefits so clearly that it will not help to stabilize the current situation.” Read More