He's a Republican Iraq War veteran running in a Hudson Valley district that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry 53-45, and he's challenging incumbent freshman Democrat John Hall who, in 2006, ousted a Republican incumbent with less than 6,000 votes. Hall is an anti-nuclear activist and formerly the lead member of the 1970s arena rock band Orleans, best known for such hits as "Still the One."

With two wars going on, Lalor should be at least giving Hall a major challenge, but Congressional Quarterly rates the district "Democrat favored."

Lalor's running into the same problem on a local level that has troubled John McCain nationally: voters are worried about the economy, and foreign policy has taken a back seat.

"The Iraq war didn't even come up," said Lalor spokesman Chris Covucci, describing the candidate's recent 70-minute interview with the editorial board of the Westchester Journal News.

"Since [Hall] took office in 2006, everything has gotten worse," Covucci went on. "The only thing that got better was the surge in Iraq, and he opposed it."

In a somewhat desperate attempt to rebrand the candidate (again, shades of McCain), Lalor's campaign filed more than 6,000 signatures with the State Board of Elections to create a new party line called "Energy Security Now."

"That was a way to connect to people and to speak about that issue," said Cuvocci.

It didn't work out. Hall's supporters claimed the petitions didn't comply with state law and filed a lawsuit. Lalor's campaign disputed the charge, but withdrew the petitions anyway, saying the candidate would rather spend money exposing Hall's energy record than on expensive legal proceedings.

Now, Lalor's campaign is trying to link Hall to the George W. Bush.

"Hall's most significant vote was on the Bush bailout," said Covucci. "John Hall voted for that, twice."

Lalor, Covucci said, is an independent actor.

"I think there's probably a lot of disappointment with the Bush presidency," he said. "But with that said, the general disappointment is with Washington. Our point is Kieran is a different kind of candidate."

He noted that former Republican Governor George Pataki, and the district's former Congress member, Sue Kelly, supported other candidates in the primary before Lalor prevailed.

And where is Lalor in relation America's most famous self-described maverick, John McCain?

"It is a majority Republican district, and Republicans are more energized because of Sarah Palin, but we don't think about that a lot," Covucci said. "It's beyond our control. I wouldn't say we really position him with respect to the McCain-Palin ticket."

Democratic members of congress Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney have been the latest to push the analogy, scolding the Republicans for being political and urging them to “get back to work.”

Here, Michael Brady, who used to work for the Assembly Republicans, and Michael Giuliani (no relation to Rudy), the former chief of staff to former Rep. Sue Kelly, have an article making the case that there's a certain hypocrisy in the Democrats demanding more disclosure from the White House in Washington but blocking for Spitzer in Albany. From the piece:

UPDATE: An aide to Carolyn Maloney sent over the following statement: "The Congresswoman issued her statement because she believes that the time and energies of the Governor and his staff should not be tied up in multiple political investigations. The State Ethics Commission has the power and independence to investigate this matter thoroughly."

UPDATE: And here's a response from Nadler's office: "The notion that one can draw a direct comparison between congress's investigations into the Bush administration and the partisan witch hunt into Governor Sptizer is laughable and absurd. It's not even apples and oranges. It's apples and automobiles.

"The so called 'investigation' led by state majority leader Bruno is redundant. The Albany District Attorney has already determined that no criminal activity occurred. More importantly, congress is acting now because for six years, the Republican-led congress failed to carry out their constitutionally mandated oversight role and a politicized Justice Department ignored and possibly helped evade the rule of law.

"In Washington, I'm working to restore checks and balances; in Albany, Mr. Bruno is engaging in a partisan sideshow."

Good reporting. The Forward notes that the Israel issue doesn't matter that much to the Satmars, and I would add that Neturei Karta, the anti-Zionist Jews who actually care about atrocities against Arabs (and yes, went to Tehran recently for Ahmedinejad's anti-Holocaust show), is based in Monsey—in Hall's district, I believe. I hope Walt and Mearsheimer write about them; maybe that way the mainstream media would finally do the story.

Fleischer wishes to put the speculation to rest once and for all.

For the record, he said in an impressively Shermanesque email, "I do want you to know that I am NOT running. Now that I have children, I would never do anything that could risk making them into Redskin fans."

-- Josh Benson

(In Fleischer's defense, Hall seems to be a bit of a cue-ball now, too.)

Let's add the caveat here that Fleischer hasn't actually said anything publicly about running. The rumor seems have originated from a story on the conservative magazine Human Events' webpage, in which "friends" of Fleischer note that he "has done just about everything congressional" except run for Congress. But the speculation that Fleischer might make a run has followed him ever since he announced he was quitting his White House job and planning a move back home. All of which leads us to this story from April 2001, from the New York Times' Westchester Weekly, "Native Son: Pound Ridge Still Beckons." It's behind the TimesSelect wall now, so let's summarize a few key details:

--Fleischer hung framed prints of Bedford Village on the wall of his White House office.

--The Westchester County Republican Committee named him its 2001 "Man of the Year." (Come on--Al Pirro can't win every year!)

--Fleischer's parents are avid Democrats. Of her son's Republicanism, his mother says: "He'll grow out of it."

--During his years as a Washington up-and-comer, he often "brought 20 of his Washington friends up [to Westchester County] for a July 4th party at his parents' house and fireworks in the town park."

Hmmm... Sounds like someone's been laying the groundwork for a while.

--Andrew Rice

It's freshman orientation week in Washington, when all the newly elected Representatives get to meet the party leaders and get intensive training on how to put a staff and congressional office together.

The freshman get to bring along one person -- a sort of chief-of-staff-in-training, to help out and learn the ropes. John Hall has tapped Darren Rigger, who he faced in a Democratic primary before going on to defeat Sue Kelly, as his orientation aide.

Rigger just told me that Hall hasn't officially hired anyone just yet but that he's "honored and flattered" to be a part of the orientation. "He's learning, I'm learning. We're learning how to staff your office, and then how you put together a transition team. People are stunned here when they find out we were in the primary."

But, according to Rigger, people are more stunned to see singer songwriter Hall "a celebrity -people recognize him from his music." Rigger said that Hall's only competition for star of the freshman class is Heath Schuler, a former quarterback for the Washington Redskins who was elected to represent a district in Western North Carolina.

"They are the ones that the staffers get excited about meeting," he said before cutting the call short. "Nancy Pelosi is coming to the room - cool."

--Jason Horowitz

Here is one of the graphs MoveOn.org just sent out.

On the left is the number of phone calls their supporters made to voters on behalf of Democratic challenger John Hall in his race against Rep. Sue Kelly.

On the right is the margin by which Hall won.

Message: MoveOn put Hall and other Democrats over the edge.

In an email to supporters, the group goes on to say:

Maybe. But Kiryas Joel would probably say the same thing.

UPDATE: Here's what they sent out. (pdf)

-- Azi Paybarah

Tuesday's congressional elections were a major coup for "those who pushed for a fearless, genuinely oppositional Dem posture on national security issues early in the cycle," says Greg Sargent.

Taking credit for Republican Rep. Sue Kelly's loss: Richard French and Stephen Colbert.

Ben finds George Pataki's presidential campaign office.

The son of Albany's longtime mayor is joining a politically connected firm in Albany, a sign of the power shift in that city, says Liz.

Urban Elephants has a message for some of Tuesday's winners:

Early & Often expands on our brief analysis of how well the anti-tax message worked here.

Here is how some court cases affected the elections.

And above is Adam Green with his John Murtha hand puppet.

Belated Update: The mayor's Deputy Press Secretary Jennifer Falk is leaving to become the Executive Director of the Union Square Partnership.

-- Azi Paybarah

From Ari Felberman, the government relations coordinator for the village:

"Numbers don't lie. The numbers are very clear, there was a chunk of votes taken out of one column and put into the other. It was basically a doubling of the votes, and John Hall won within that margin."

The Hall campaign doesn't disagree. As spokesman Tom Staudter told me, "Obviously it was an important block for us."

The reason for their endorsement of Hall, Felberman said, was a call from Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver.

"Shelly Silver asked that we give him every consideration possible," Felberman said. "Democrats will be able to do more if they have a united ticket, this will be a clean sweep."

Then there was the little matter of water pipelines.

In March 2004, Kelly withdrew from a Congressional bill a $20 million federal funding authorization for the building of a water pipeline from New York City's reservoir to Kiryas Joel. The town had aggressively lobbied for the aqueduct to meet the needs of its fast growing Satmar community. At the time, Kelly said the authorization was contingent on the pipeline serving more than one municipality, and withdrew her support at the time because, according to a spokesperson, "it's becoming more and more clear that there's not a regional consensus for this project."

There was, in fact, sharp opposition to the project, including an anti-pipeline Web site - www.stopthekjpipeline.org. and an online petition protesting the aqueduct.

After Kiryas Joel shifted their support from Kelly to Hall right before this year's election -- they were initially considered to have been behind Kelly becuase TK -- voters began receiving robo-calls suggesting that John Hall must have agreed to a secret deal on the pipeline.

Hall's office denies it. "John made no deals, made no promises," Staudter said. "She courted their votes as avidly as John did."

Kelly's office didn't return calls for comment.

Felberman, for his part, said that the calls put out by the Kelly campaign bordered on anti-Semitism and played on the county's fear of a growing Jewish community.

Asked what the community expected, pipeline-wise, to get from Hall, he offered this somewhat vague response:

"Put it this way, just to be treated fairly, as equal citizens."

--Jason Horowitz

In an automated call that has been going out to Westchester voters today, an anonymous male speaker connects the support of Kiryas Joel for Democratic challenger John Hall to a commitment to a "mammoth, new 13-mile pipeline" they wanted.

"There's a reason why KJ is block-voting for John Hall today, and it isn't because he said 'no,'" the caller says. He goes on to give Hall's campaign phone number, and says Hall is "trading the votes of Kiryas Joel in return for a mammoth pipeline that will damage our quality of life in Orange County."

At the end of the message, a voice says that the call was authorized by the Sue Kelly campaign. I'm still waiting to hear back from them.

The call is here.

-- Azi Paybarah