Stephen Baldwin

Stephen Baldwin was arrested on Thursday for alleged repeated failures to file his New York state personal income tax. Mr. Baldwin, an actor, conservative Christian and younger brother to 30 Rock star Alec Baldwin, allegedly failed to file taxes for three years--2008 through 2010--and he may owe the state over $350,000.

CBS New York quoted a statement from Rockland County, N.Y., D.A. Thomas Zugibe, who said Mr. Baldwin's "repetitive failure to file returns and pay taxes over a period of several years" was just another element contributing to "the sweeping cutbacks and closures in local government and schools."

The actor, well-known for both his family name and his role in The Usual Suspects, is an outspoken conservative. Mr. Baldwin has appeared on Fox News as a political commentator. He once famously claimed in an interview with Fox that he'd "leave the country" if Barack Obama became president.

Mr. Baldwin has also had previous brushes with the law, most recently in August, 2012, when he was arrested in Harlem for driving with a suspended license.

If he is found guilty of evading taxes, Mr. Baldwin could go to prison for four years.

But even if the proud Arizonan, whose support in national and key early state polls is plummeting into single digits, does come to see his second White House bid as doomed, it seems likely (as I argued yesterday) that he’ll stubbornly plow ahead anyway, dwindling treasury and fleeing aides be damned. After all, hasn’t his bullheadedness on Iraq demonstrated the profound and baffling lengths to which he’ll go to avoid being branded a quitter?

But the mere possibility of fresh blood in the ’08 waters does raise the question of which of the other 18 (19 with Fred Thompson) candidates will be the next to endure a death watch. For any of them, giving up on the presidential dream would be a wrenching decision, and surely they’d all be tempted to stick it out like Mr. McCain.

Thus, in the truest spirit of midsummer speculation, the Observer welcomes you to the inaugural edition of its …

ALSO-RAN DEAD POOL

Bill Richardson (D- New Mexico)

22-1

Would probably leave the race if…It’s announced that every future Democratic debate will be moderated by Tim Russert.

* * *

Sam Brownback (R-Kansas)

9-2

Would probably leave the race if... That Paris Hilton sex tape leaks to the press.

* * *

Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)

1,000-1

Would probably leave the race if… His wife told him to.

* * *

Mike Huckabee (R-Arkansas)

8-1

Would probably leave the race if… After reviewing yet another discouraging poll from Iowa, a dejected Huckabee suffers a relapse, raiding his campaign’s treasury and blowing it in a gluttonous weekend-long binge at every Waffle House, Sonic Burger, and Hardee’s in the Greater Little Rock Area.

* * *

Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut)

4-1

Would probably leave the race if… Kucinich buys a stop-watch and supplants him as the go-to source for debate time-keeping.

* * *

Tommy Thompson (R-Wisconsin)

2-1

Would probably leave the race if… He loses that petition to change his name to “Fred.”

* * *

Joe Biden (D-Delaware)

8-1

Would probably leave the race if… Inspired by some of Biden’s statements earlier in the campaign, VH-1 offers him a slot on a new reality show, “The Perilous Race,” competing against the likes of Michael Richards and Don Imus on a scavenger hunt through downtown Newark.

* * *

Tom Tancredo (R-Colorado)

3-1

Would probably leave the race if… He accomplishes his sole objective of stoking enough right-wing outrage at Congressional efforts to create a path to citizenship for undocumented workers to kill the bill. Wait…he’s still running?

* * *

Mike Gravel (D-Alaska)

15-1

Would probably leave the race if… While filming his next campaign ad, Gravel accidentally lights himself on fire, then runs to a nearby pond and jumps in, only to realize that he can’t swim.

* * *

Duncan Hunter (R-California)

3-1

Would probably leave the race if… PBS were to offer the self-described fence-builder Bob Vila’s former spot on “This Old House.”

* * *

Ron Paul (R-Texas)

29-2

Would probably leave the race if… Osama activates his cell.

* * *

Jim Gilmore (R-Virginia)

1-2

Would probably leave the race if… Oh, wait. The answer seems to be: if his retina detaches. The saddest thing about this news is that Gilmore stopped campaigning on Friday, and nobody noticed until today. Get well soon, Jim—we need you back here on the Also-Ran Dead Pool.

We were anticipating an easy morning over here at the Politicker, a veritable Katyusha barrage of posts out of last night’s Democratic debate at Howard University. Would the crowd be with Obama? Would Edwards go after Hillary again? Would Mike Gravel hurl a boulder at Tavis Smiley?

Well… we went, we saw, we yawned.

Rebecca Sinderbrand, who was at the hall, reports that the consensus was that “this debate was somewhat of a bust, as these things go.” Apparently, in the spin room afterward, people ignored Edwards and ogled Kucinich’s fembot wife. No news there.

Jason Horowitz, writing last night, gave the nod to Hillary as the night’s winner, though without much enthusiasm: “In the end, the campaigns of the frontrunners will all claim victory and will have valid points to make in the spin room. But on television, at least, Mrs. Clinton came across as the most assertive and fluent with legislation and policy.”

Steve Kornacki wished the main candidates had taken the opportunity to beat up on poor Gravel, the way Rudy knocked around Ron Paul to such great effect at the South Carolina GOP debate. Unfortunately, he writes, “perhaps because the rules technically forbade direct exchanges between the candidates or maybe just because they are used to tuning out when Mr. Gravel speaks,” the oddball Alaskan’s latest musings about drug legalization passed without so much as a raised eyebrow, much less a right cross.

Anyway, it was that kind of night. We shall not speak of it again. But if, perchance, you haven’t gotten your fill of bromides and comity, here’s a roundup of other folks’ takes.

Slate’s John Dickerson calls the debate an “orgy of agreement.”

Ben senses that Obama missed an opportunity.

Michael Crowley thinks that Hillary’s answer on the Darfur question “underscored my sense that she's doing a great job with the can-a-woman-lead-the-military question.” But he thinks everyone will forget this one real quick.

MSNBC’s first read calculates that—this will come as a shock—Bill Richardson spoke the longest.

Jim Geraghty at NRO calls it “an egregious can-you top-this panderfest.”

And Jonathan Martin was struck by Mike Gravel’s pants. 

Yes, it was a very khaki evening.