The simplest way is to run for the office you covet when it comes open and to win it—or, failing that, to wage a noble-but-losing campaign that puts you first in line for the next time around. This approach enjoys a long tradition—renewed this year with John McCain’s nomination—in Republican presidential politics.

And then there’s the other strategy: If there is an unbeatable and immovable force blocking you from the office you desire, yield to that force, embrace it and hope it will favor you with its blessing for the next opening.

This is the game that some of Hillary Clinton’s most high-profile supporters have played. Evan Bayh, Tom Vilsack and Wesley Clark all clearly covet the presidency and were itching to run this year. Vilsack actually jumped into the race, the first candidate from either party to do so, back in November 2006, while Bayh formed an exploratory committee a month later and Clark never really shut down his political operation after his ill-fated 2004 campaign.

But then they all thought the better of it. Hillary Clinton was poised to enter the race as perhaps the most prohibitive front-runner in the modern primary era, powered by an unbeatable mix of cash, expectations and insider support. And whatever oxygen she wouldn’t consume would be gobbled up by Barack Obama and John Edwards, leaving no room in the 2008 contest for anyone else. The conventional wisdom of early 2007 was clear: Clinton was the inevitable winner, and with Obama and Edwards in the race, no one else could even get noticed.

One by one, then, the lesser-known but equally ambitious Democrats headed for the sidelines and joined Clinton’s cheering section. Just two weeks after launching his exploratory committee in December 2006, Bayh announced he wouldn’t be a candidate, and by September he officially backed Clinton. Vilsack ended his bid last February and signed on with Clinton a few months later, and Clark endorsed her in September.

It was easy to divine the pragmatism at work in all three moves. Bayh, for example, is a case study in why Clinton attracted so much early support in this race from so many ambitious Democrats.

Much like Al Gore, Bayh is a child of Washington, someone almost literally bred to run for president. The son of Birch Bayh, the old liberal lion and former Indiana senator who sought the Democratic presidential nod in 1976, he established roots in Indiana as soon as he earned his law degree, plunging into elected politics in 1986, when he won a race for secretary of state at age 30. Two years later, he was the governor, a post he held for two terms. By the early ‘90s, Bayh seemed on an inexorable path to the national stage.

His first big break was supposed to come in 1996, when he was asked to deliver the keynote address at the Democratic convention—the same prime-time platform that turned Mario Cuomo into a national star in 1984. But Bayh’s speech was not the smash hit that Cuomo’s was and it didn’t leave many Democrats clamoring for a Bayh presidential run in 2000. Instead, he ran for and won a Senate seat in 1998 and ended up as one of four finalists for Gore’s vice presidential slot in 2000. He passed on a 2004 campaign, perhaps calculating that George W. Bush was likely to win reelection and that his odds would be better in 2008.

Sure enough, from the moment Bush defeated Kerry in November ’04, Bayh seemed certain in 2008 to run his long-awaited national campaign. He stepped up his travel and fund-raising, dispatched a mini-army of field workers to assist Democratic candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, and sought to establish himself as the most electable ’08 option for Democrats—someone with a proven ability to win in one of the most Republican states in the country.

“More than anything else,” he said when he launched his exploratory committee, “I think we need someone who can unite the American people in the common cause of building our nation. And that's not happening in Washington today.”

But that didn’t last long. Realizing how tough it would be to gain any traction in a race dominated by the money and personalities of Clinton, Obama and Edwards, Bayh promptly backed out. When he threw himself into Clinton’s effort, his game seemed clear: Win favor with her in the primaries to earn the VP slot on her ticket in the fall. Win or lose, he’d then be on course to win the big prize on his own in either 2012 or 2016.

Of course, he couldn’t quite admit this. Publicly, he said he was backing Clinton because “the next president of the United States must be experienced and seasoned, must be smart and must be tough.” So much for his earlier talk of finding a candidate who could unite the country and win over Republicans—hardly the calling cards of Clinton, one of the most polarizing public figures in America.

But the speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, Patrick Bauer, all but confirmed Bayh’s true motives. Bauer said that Bayh had personally courted him for the endorsement and suggested that Bayh had hinted he might end up on a Hillary-led ticket in the fall.

Vilsack and Clark, without doubt, had similar thoughts. As the moderate former governor of Iowa, a key swing state in the fall, Vilsack was well aware of the ticket-balancing assets he’d provide for any Democratic nominee, not to mention his potential importance in his state’s lead-off caucuses. In ending his own campaign and endorsing Clinton, the calculation was obvious: Deliver Iowa (and, thus, the nomination) for her and win a spot on the fall ticket. (It also didn’t hurt that Clinton helped pay off his $430,000 presidential campaign debt when he backed her.)

Clark, too, surely considered the vice presidential angle in lining up with Clinton, knowing that his military credentials would make him attractive to a wartime presidential nominee. It’s also conceivable that he had an eye on a top-level cabinet appointment, secretary of state perhaps. In fairness, unlike Bayh and Vilsack, a personal angle was also at work, given his previous ties to the Clintons.

According to the original script, the only Democratic intrigue in the spring of 2008 would involve Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential selection. This is the race that Evan Bayh, Tom Vilsack and Wesley Clark all thought they were entering when they made their endorsements. But then, of course, something funny happened, and now it looks like Barack Obama will win the nomination. Which goes to show that when you’re trying to figure out how to get onto a presidential ticket, there’s no such thing as a safe option.

One of the biggest stakeholders in the January 3 Iowa caucuses is Tom Vilsack, the former Democratic Governor who was briefly an ’08 candidate himself.

Vilsack traveled extensively in 2005 and 2006 and formally declared his candidacy last November, only to abruptly drop out shortly thereafter and endorse Hillary Clinton.

It was a pragmatic move from an ambitious man: With the unexpected emergence of Barack Obama, Vilsack realized it would be nearly impossible to break through in a Democratic contest featuring two full-fledged political celebrities (Clinton and Obama) and a half-celebrity (John Edwards). Plus, he faced the prospect of a humiliating showing in his home state, where Democrats resented the potential impact of his favorite son status on the primacy of their first-in-the-nation caucus. So he endorsed Hillary, hoping for a shot at the Number Two slot on her ticket. (She sweetened the pot by helping him pay off $400,000 in debt.)

Obviously, an Iowa win would bolster the 57-year-old Vilsack’s standing with Hillary – and he’s willing to play the attack dog to help deliver one. But is he really V.P. material?

On paper, the answer is yes. He’s a moderate from a swing state – Iowa is one of just three states that switched its partisan allegiance between the 2000 and 2004 elections – and his gubernatorial experience would mesh with Hillary’s background in the Senate and White House.

But he’s also a truly uninspiring public performer who would do nothing to generate excitement for a Hillary-led ticket. And while his credentials are solid, it’s not like he offers an extraordinary personal biography or professional story that would instantly add credibility to the ticket. He’d be a competent, serviceable Vice-Presidential candidate who almost certainly wouldn’t affect the outcome one way or the other. Given the hostility she faces from nearly 50 percent of the electorate, Hillary would probably need more than that from her V.P. choice.

Of course, any Vilsack speculation probably won’t even matter if Hillary trips up in Iowa in two weeks.

Such analysis, in the view of one of Clinton's top fund-raisers, may be a greater threat to her campaign than any of her opponents.

Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic National Committeeman and major Clinton supporter, said that the media was setting her up for a fall, and that the idea that Hillary Clinton is a front-runner losing ground in Iowa “is the greatest fiction of the entire presidential race.”

“Senator Clinton started out in third place in Iowa," he told me. "A distant third place. Governor Vilsack told me, when he declared support for her, that she was in a distant third in Iowa. Obviously it’s going to be a close race. It always was and will be a close race. I think too many of the Clinton supporters took this nomination for granted and I think for the Clinton supporters this is a powerful wake up call. But the real issue here is not how Senator Clinton does in comparison to Edwards and Obama. The real issue here is how does Hillary Clinton do compared to media expectations. That’s her competition in Iowa. Not Edwards and Obama. Media expectations. I think she is showing a lot of courage by focusing on Iowa, staying in the race in Iowa, and campaigning there, versus Giuliani and McCain and others who have simply walked away from the race in Iowa.”

With almost every Democratic politician in New York clamoring to help her out, the role of moderator for the event is going to former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who also the National Campaign Co-Chairman of the campaign. Kind of like an on-stage running mate.

For one thing, he says, it was simply a matter of returning a favor:

Full letter (and fund-raising solicitation) after the jump.

--Jason Horowitz

I'm not someone to play coy about my intentions. When I make a decision, I go all in and follow through. Hillary Clinton has the same determination, and it is something I have always admired.

When I first ran for governor of Iowa in 1998, many people didn't give me much of a chance. But not Hillary. She told me she'd do everything she could do to help, and she followed through. She stood by my side, and Iowa is better for it. She helped ignite the spark that changed Iowa from a red state to a blue state.

By standing with Hillary now we'll help show that we are strong enough to win back the White House -- and America will be stronger and better for it.

Please join me and Christie and help Hillary make a strong showing before the March 31 deadline:

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/march31

Christie and I plan on spending the next 10 months helping Hillary win the Iowa caucuses and the other states necessary to win the Democratic nomination -- and after that, the White House in 2008.

I am proud to do it because of all the candidates running, she has the best ideas, the most energy, and the values and vision to lead our country in the right direction after eight long years of George W. Bush.

She's going to put an end to the war in Iraq. She's going to make sure every American has access to affordable health care. She's going to make us energy secure. And I know she'll put children and families first -- she has fought for them for decades.

Today, Christie and I made a contribution to Hillary's campaign, and we did it for two reasons. First, we believe in her campaign. And second, the critical March 31 FEC deadline is just five days away.

We must show the magnitude of the grassroots support for this campaign in the next five days. I hope you'll join us and make a contribution at this critical time:

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/march31

I just returned from my first real vacation in nine years, and I am ready to get back to work -- because we don't have time to wait.

This country wants real change.

That's why I announced I'm endorsing Hillary today, and that's why Christie and I are going to travel around our state and the country, introducing Hillary to our friends and talking to everyone we meet about why Hillary is the right choice for Iowa and America.

We're going to give this campaign everything we've got. Please join us and make your contribution before the March 31 deadline:

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/march31

I'm excited about joining this campaign. Thanks for your support.

Sincerely,
Tom Vilsack

Given the value of Vilsack's endorsement in Iowa, we can probably expect the other remaining candidates to be every bit as effusive as Hillary.

--Jason Horowitz

The poll, says RealClearPolitics, "looks like Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare." In head-to-heads, the top three Democrats beat every Republican. Hillary loses to every Republican but Mitt Romney. The customary rebuttal to a poll like this is that it's early, but numbers like these are definitely not going to make those electability issues go away.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is running one point behind John McCain, at 26 percent.

-- Andrew Rice

Alan Hevesi responds to his settlement with the AG's office by saying that most of the chauffering for his wife was "related to her security."

Here is a calendar of state employees who chauffeured Hevesi's wife, and how the AG's office came up with their calculations.

Eliot Spitzer's adviser, Paul Francis, said that health care is one of the greatest challenges facing the new governor.

Siberia may not open tomorrow.

Mitt Romney, John Edwards and Tom Vilsack all made hires for their presumed presidential campaigns.

A documentary about the role of bloggers in Ned Lamont's race will air on Dec. 28.

Andrew Sullivan is less annoying than Kos, according to a new poll.

Mike Bloomberg looks ahead to 2030.

And pictured above is the room at Gracie Mansion where the mayor hosted his party for City Hall reporters last night.

-- Azi Paybarah

Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is running for president.

New York's congressional delegation gained some major clout after Tuesday's election, with Chuck Schumer explaining, "Now when I say to one of my colleagues, New York needs something, or I need something, they'll be more amenable."

Iraq, Donald Rumsfeld and Mark Foley all became helpful issues for Democrats.

The president told reporters that Rumsfeld was doing a great job while he was interviewing replacements.

Joe Lieberman will retain his seniority in the Senate, caucusing with Democrats and likely chairing the Homeland Security Committee.

According to an exit poll, more than half of Connecticut voters surveyed didn't think Ned Lamont had enough experience to be a senator.

Eliot Spitzer faces more questions about what to do with Alan Hevesi.

Jill Gardiner expands on what we said about the six out-of-state candidates Mike Bloomberg and his aides helped elect on Tuesday.

Joe Bruno is the top Republican in the state now, but what he's inherited are "ashes," in the words of pollster John Zogby.

Dennis Rivera braced his union members for the hospital closings expected to be announced later this year.

One Democrat on the City Council doesn't want his salary raised.

And starting next year, the City Council will identify which members received member items in the budget.

-- Azi Paybarah

To the Editor:

As a resident of Iowa, I can say that Steve Kornacki got it just about right [“What Happens If Hillary Whiffs in ’08?”, Aug. 28–Sep. 4]. Let me add a couple of points:

First, Governor Tom Vilsack may run in the Democratic caucus here. In years past—for example, when Senator Tom Harkin was running—out-of-state Democrats stayed away because the assumption was that the vote would go to the favorite-son candidate. And Mr. Vilsack is very popular here. However, it could be that this year all bets are off, because the Democrats are desperate for a win. Mr. Vilsack may get lost in the shuffle.

Secondly, the best way to win in Iowa is to personally visit all the small-to-medium-size towns, because that’s where the votes are. We’re not a big-city-dominated state. That’s how John Kerry won in ’04: He came to our town of about 9,000 people (Fairfield) and spoke to maybe 70 people in the public library. And that was one of his biggest crowds that day.

However, it takes a huge investment of time to do that. If the first four primaries are close together, it will be really hard for Hillary to spend as much time here as Mr. Kerry did. So she’s got quite a dilemma on her hands: take a chance on losing the very first primary or the next three?

Good article. I agree that Hillary is looking shakier every day. Who knows? Maybe Bill is right when he says that she hasn’t decided whether to run yet.

Andy Averill

Fairfield, Iowa

Not Open at Open

To the Editor:

I enjoyed John Koblin’s article on the female tennis players [“The Boring Women of the Open,” Aug. 28–Sept. 4]. But to suggest that Martina Hingis’ homophobia toward Amélie Mauresmo or her race-baiting comments toward Venus and Serena Williams make her “mischievous and charismatic” is nonsense. No, comments like those make her known for being what she is: racially insensitive and homophobic.

Kathleen Jill

Brooklyn

Roger That!

To the Editor:

Just a note to say what an interesting article James Kaplan wrote about Roger Federer [“A Tennis Genius,” Aug. 28–Sept. 4]. Mr. Kaplan clearly pointed out that Mr. Federer is an unusual star and a gentleman at all times. I’m sure your readers will enjoy knowing more about this man who has been No. 1 for so many months. Nice going.

Bob Larson

Edina, Minn.

Best Accessory: A Mouse!

To the Editor:

Re Laren Stover’s “Mouse Beautiful: A Furry, Furtive Little Love Story,” [New Yorker’s Diary, Aug. 28–Sept. 4]: Love the mouse story! More! More! When I lived in Paris, there was this model, Marie Sophie (quite famous, very Margiela), who carried a pet white mouse in her pocket to the shows. I used to see it backstage when I covered them for W. Later, Malcolm McLaren had a line on his Paris album about girls “riding the metro stroking white mice in their pockets.” So, it was rat-ified (Get it? Ha, ha!) as an official French fashion statement then. The story is wonderful and quintessentially Stover.

Brian D. Leitch

Los Angeles

Sensitive on Syria

To the Editor:

Thank you for Katherine Zoepf’s thoughtful piece on Syria [“Dispatch From Damascus: ‘We’re Ready,’” July 24]. It certainly is a fascinating society.

I was wondering whether, in light of the points Ms. Zoepf raises in her article, she thought there’s a fair chance of government repression of the type we saw in the early 80’s, which followed a sharp rise in the prominence of the Islamic Brotherhood in some areas? I worry that if the government senses a similar trend beginning, the backlash might be similarly severe.

Chris Haufe

Durham, N.C.