Q-Poll, Politicker Analysis

Today’s poll of 717 “likely” Democratic voters from Quinnipiac University has:

Ferrer: 32%
Weiner: 25%
Fields: 14%
Miller: 14%
Undecided: 13%

Weiner has picked up four points since a poll released September 7; Ferrer is even.

The Politicker’s secret polling analyst tells me that recent poll results have turned the calculus upside down for the Ferrer and Weiner campaigns. Ferrer, who had been hoping that his three rivals would take similar, small pieces of the vote and leave him 40%, will now be hoping for Fields and Miller to collapse. He may be close enough to 40% that even if most of Miller’s voters deserted to Weiner, the minority who headed to Ferrer could bring him over the top.

Weiner, meanwhile, now needs Miller and, especially, Fields to stay strong, denying Freddy 40% and, he hopes, putting him in the run-off.

Q-Poll, Politicker Analysis