Fairleigh Dickinson University

Jon Corzine 47% Doug Forrester 39mpaign Stalemate Headed into the last week of the campaign for governor, Democrat Jon Corzine maintains his eight point lead over Republican Doug Forrester. According to the first release of data from Fairleigh Dickinson University„s tracking poll, Corzine leads the race by seven points 44%-37% without “leaners” and leads by eight points 47%-39% with “leaners” included. That margin is virtually unchanged from PublicMind results of Oct. 11th when Corzine led by 8 points 48%-40%, and similar to September numbers when Corzine led by 9 points at 47%-38%. “If Forrester has any more cards to show, now is the time to show them,” said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. The Democratic nominee maintains his lead despite record numbers who say the state is on the wrong track. Just 23% of likely voters–a new low–say the state is headed in the right direction while 64%–a new high–say the state is on the wrong track. Even a majority of Democrats (53%) say the say state is on the wrong track. A majority of coveted undecided voters (56%) also say the state is on the wrong track. Coincidentally, the percentage of voters who identify both candidates as “negative” campaigners has doubled since mid-October and quadrupled since late September. “Forrester has been cast in the role of the challenger and doesn„t have to convince anyone the state is on the wrong track,” said Woolley. “But he has yet to convince voters that he„s the solution and Corzine is not.” Despite leading 34%-23% in early October on the question of who is better able to do something about high property taxes, Forrester has fallen into a dead heat with Corzine on that issue. Moreover, only one of two Republicans says Forrester is the more likely of the two to combat high property taxes. Meanwhile, Corzine continues to run far ahead (45%-25%) on the question of who has the background and experience to be a good governor. And Forrester has made no headway yet on the question of who is more independent of party bosses and large campaign contributors: a quarter of voters (24%) say Forrester is more independent, another quarter (25%) say Corzine, and the remainder say neither or both or they„re not sure. Just 18% of likely voters predict Forrester will win the race, while 63% predict Corzine will win. Even one of every two Republicans says that Corzine is going to win. The Republican nominee continues to run slightly ahead of Corzine among the state„s white voters, but the Democrat runs far ahead among non-white voters, leading by a 7:2 ratio. The PublicMind poll of 442 likely voters statewide was conducted by telephone from October 20 through October 26 and has a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. PublicMind continues to conduct interviews through the final week of campaigning and will frequently update its numbers from its tracking poll. Tables, questions, and methodology available on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846. For more information, please call (201) 692-7032. Background Memo and Tables The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 20 through October 26 using a randomly selected sample of 442 likely voters statewide aged 18 and over. The sampling error for 442 adults is +/- 5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. The questions included in this release are as follows: Question: Now, turning to New Jersey¦ In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or do you think the state has gotten off on the wrong track? All D I R Vote For¦ Oct Sep Ëœ05 Jul Ëœ05 Apr Ëœ05 Jan. Ëœ05 Oct. Ëœ04 Corzine Forrester Not Sure 11th Ëœ05 Right Direction 23% 30 24 13 34 12 17 29 39 36 29 40 40 Wrong track 64% 53 59 81 48 83 56 59 49 51 59 45 48 Don„t know 13% 17 17 6 18 5 28 12 12 13 12 15 12 Question: Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven’t just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ¦? Would that be very or somewhat? [ROTATE NAMES] Haven„t heard of Heard of Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable No opinion Doug Forrester 1% 99% 16 26 21 18 19 Jon Corzine 0% 100% 23 25 16 21 15 Previous Surveys¦ Forrester 10/11/05 4% 96% 16 27 18 13 26 Forrester 9/05 9% 91% 13 29 19 9 3 Forrester 7/05 10% 90% 12 34 17 11 27 Forrester 4/05 20% 80% 13 26 14 6 41 Forrester 1/05 36% 64% 8 22 10 7 51 Corzine 10/11/05 2% 98% 23 24 17 17 18 Corzine 9/05 8% 92% 19 27 17 15 21 Corzine 7/05 7% 94% 23 34 14 15 15 Corzine 4/05 8% 91% 18 27 16 16 23 Corzine 1/05 11% 90% 22 31 12 9 26 Codey 10/05 11% 89% 28 33 10 6 22 Codey 9/05 21% 80% 28 33 12 7 20 Codey 7/05 15% 85% 21 39 16 10 15 Codey 4/05 22% 78% 21 30 16 9 23 Codey 01/05 35% 65% 18 30 4 3 44 Codey 10/04 59% 42% 6 17 6 4 66 Codey 8/04 68% 32% 11 19 3 6 60 Lautenberg 7/05 11% 89% 19 36 15 16 14 Question: If the election for Governor of New Jersey were held right now, and you had to hake a choice, which of the following ¦or ¦ would you vote for? [If “unsure” ask:] Which way do you lean¦? Rotate names All D I R con mod lib Men Wom white Non- white Jon Corzine, the Democratic 44% lean Corzine 3% Total Corzine 47% 78 40 12 26 41 74 43 50 42 74 Doug Forrester, the Republican 37% lean Forrester 2% Total Forrester 39% 12 34 78 63 30 16 45 34 44 19 Unsure 11% 8 17 8 8 24 7 10 11 11 3 Other 3% 3 9 1 3 5 3 2 5 4 3 Due to rounding, numbers may not add. Question: Which candidate for governor¦ or ¦ is best described by¦? rotate names All Dems Ind. Rep. 11 Oct. September Honest, trustworthy ` Jon Corzine 25% 42 19 8 27 30% Doug Forrester 28% 10 19 56 29 25% neither (vol) 22% 21 33 21 19 17% both (vol) 10% 11 14 6 10 9% don„t know (vol) 15% 17 16 9 15 18% Can do something about high property taxes? Dems Ind. Rep. 11 Oct. September Jon Corzine 29% 46 24 10 23 33% Doug Forrester 28% 15 19 50 34 28% neither (vol) 24% 21 37 22 22 19% both (vol) 6% 4 10 6 5 4% don„t know (vol) 14% 15 11 12 16 16% Understands the concerns of the average person Dems Ind. Rep. 11 Oct. September Jon Corzine 35% 58 32 10 32 37% Doug Forrester 28% 13 15 52 31 28% neither (vol) 19% 14 34 18 16 15% both (vol) 8% 6 9 10 6 6% don„t know (vol) 10% 9 10 9 14 16% Has the background and experience to be a good governor Dems Ind. Rep. 11 Oct. September Jon Corzine 45% 70 38 20 42 42% Doug Forrester 25% 8 20 49 26 22% neither (vol) 6% 3 15 5 7 10% both (vol) 14% 11 16 16 9 10% don„t know (vol) 11% 8 12 10 16 16% Negative campaigner Dems Ind. Rep. 11 Oct. September Jon Corzine 21% 11 11 39 25 21% Doug Forrester 26% 38 28 12 23 26% neither (vol) 7% 7 8 6 16 19% both (vol) 35% 34 40 36 18 9% don„t know (vol) 10% 10 14 6 18 25% Independent of the party bosses and large campaign contributors Dems Ind. Rep. 11 Oct. September Jon Corzine 25% 39 16 13 28 31% Doug Forrester 24% 13 16 42 25 22% neither (vol) 22% 19 33 23 19 15% both (vol) 9% 10 14 5 7 7% don„t know (vol) 20% 20 22 17 22 25% Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for governor in November¦ or ¦? Rotate names All Dem Ind Rep. 11 Oct. All 11 Oct Reps. Sept Ëœ05 All Sept. Rep July Ëœ05 Jon Corzine 63% 77 57 51 60% 45 68% 58 68% Doug Forrester 18% 10 19 30 22% 39 18% 30 17% Too close to call (vol.) 10% 8 11 12 7% 8 4% 7 4% Don„t Know (vol.) 8% 6 13 8 11% 8 9% 6 11% # # #

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