From Hotline

Here is the most recent analysis of the New Jersey gubernatorial race from the National Journal’s Hotline:

Here We Go Again? “If two new polls are right, Jon Corzine just might lose the NJ GOV race. And that might be good news for his party in ’06. — Predicting this will be the year for Jersey GOPers is like saying this will be the year the Atlanta Braves return to the World Series. On paper, it makes sense. But it (almost) never happens. Just ask Sen. Franks, Sen. Zimmer, Gov. Schundler and, yes, Sen. Forrester. — Still, while history favors Corzine in one of the only major SEN or GOV races ever to feature two self-funders, things may be different this time. — The issue of gov’t corruption has been ripe in NJ for years, but scandals involving McGreevey and Torricelli have put NJ Dems on the defensive like almost never before. The latest Marist poll has state Dems “leading” GOPers by 20 points on the question of who’s had a bigger hand in political corruption. Voters are making the connection; The same survey shows Corzine and Forrester in a dead heat. — So if Forrester pulls this off, look for day-after Dems to talk more about DeLay, Rove and Frist than anyone named Corzine.”

From Hotline