Jon Corzine 44% Doug Forrester 40%Keep the Champagne Corked New Jersey’s likely voters have not yet endorsed Democrat Jon Corzine„s bid to move from the US Senate to the New Jersey statehouse. According to the most recent results from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s tracking poll, Corzine leads among likely voters by only 44-40% (with leaners included). Forrester„s share of the vote is relatively stable compared to past results of this poll as he maintains support from 40% of the most likely voters. On the other hand, Corzine, who has gotten 47% to 48% of the vote in a series of PublicMind polls, has a slightly declining share. Among those considered likely voters, only 40% weighed in with a favorable view of the Democratic Senator. Male voters continue to favor Forrester (48-39%), but by a slightly larger margin than in previous surveys, while married women continue to favor Corzine (42-39%), though by a smaller margin than in previous surveys. Finally, about a third (36%) of likely independent voters are not committed to either major candidate. “The math has favored Corzine all along,” said Peter Woolley, director of the poll, “but he hasn„t closed the deal.” Meanwhile, a record low 22% of likely voters say the state is headed in the right direction. But of the 62% who say the state is “on the wrong track” only half say they„re voting for Forrester. The PublicMind poll of 421 likely voters statewide was conducted by telephone from October 25 through October 31 and has a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. PublicMind continues to conduct interviews through the final week of the campaign. Tables, questions, and methodology available on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846. For more information, please call (201) 692-7032. Background Memo and Tables The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 25 through October 31 using a randomly selected sample of 442 likely voters statewide aged 18 and over. The sampling error for 421 adults is +/- 5 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. The questions included in this release are as follows: Question: Now, turning to New Jersey¦ In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or do you think the state has gotten off on the wrong track? All D I R Vote For¦ Oct Sep Ëœ05 Jul Ëœ05 Apr Ëœ05 Jan. Ëœ05 Oct. Ëœ04 Corzine Forrester Not Sure 11th Ëœ05 Right Direction 22% 30 24 11 31 13 23 29 39 36 29 40 40 Wrong track 62% 52 59 76 50 77 48 59 49 51 59 45 48 Don„t know 17% 18 16 13 19 10 29 12 12 13 12 15 12 Question: Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven’t just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ¦? Would that be very or somewhat? [ROTATE NAMES] Haven„t heard of Heard of Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable No opinion Doug Forrester 1% 99% 18 22 18 18 24 Jon Corzine — 100% 19 21 17 23 20 Previous Surveys¦ Forrester 10/27/05 1% 99% 16 26 21 18 19 Forrester 10/11 4% 96% 16 27 18 13 26 Forrester 9/05 9% 91% 13 29 19 9 30 Forrester 7/05 10% 90% 12 34 17 11 27 Forrester 4/05 20% 80% 13 26 14 6 41 Forrester 1/05 36% 64% 8 22 10 7 51 Corzine 10/27/05 0% 100% 23 25 16 21 15 Corzine 10/05 2% 98% 23 24 17 17 18 Corzine 9/05 8% 92% 19 27 17 15 21 Corzine 7/05 7% 94% 23 34 14 15 15 Corzine 4/05 8% 91% 18 27 16 16 23 Corzine 1/05 11% 90% 22 31 12 9 26 Question: If the election for Governor of New Jersey were held right now, and you had to hake a choice, which of the following ¦or ¦ would you vote for? [If “unsure” ask:] Which way do you lean¦? Rotate names All D I R con mod Lib Men Wom Married women white Non- white Jon Corzine, the Democratic 42% lean Corzine 2% Total Corzine 44% 80 30 8 23 38 71 39 47 42 38 71 Doug Forrester, the Republican 39% lean Forrester 1% Total Forrester 40% 12 35 80 65 34 17 48 35 39 46 17 Unsure 13% 5 29 10 10 25 8 10 15 15 12 10 Other 3% 3 7 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 Due to rounding, numbers may not add. Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for governor in November¦ or ¦? Rotate names All NJ right direction NJ on wrong track 11 Oct. All 11 Oct Reps. Sept Ëœ05 All Sept. Rep July Ëœ05 Jon Corzine 61% 68 60 60% 45 68% 58 68% Doug Forrester 18% 13 21 22% 39 18% 30 17% Too close to call (vol.) 10% 5 12 7% 8 4% 7 4% Don„t Know (vol.) 10% 14 7 11% 8 9% 6 11% # # #
