Inevitability

The next week is going to be full of Ferrer campaign post-mortems, finger-pointing, and regrets.

And there are obviously lots of things for Freddy’s supporters to regret, beginning with the fact that Freddy essentially took three years off from politics.

But it’s also worth keeping in mind, cliche that it is, that incumbents just don’t often lose in good times. Add Mike’s spending — which was, as much as anything, about drumming in the message that these are good times.

And so it’s reasonable to ask, with the benefit of hindsight: Could Freddy possibly have won? Could anybody have beaten Mike? (Yes, Bill Clinton, probably. Anyone else?) Inevitability