Dangers of Prognostication

National Journal’s Hotline-on-Call blog put out its New York “futures market,” (bravely) checking in on those it selected as “up-and-comers” in 2003 and selecting a new crop.

It must be said: The 2003 selections are looking pretty grim. They include a number of county-level officials about whom I don’t know much, though some, notably Joel Giambra, are no longer seen as having much of a political future. Also a number whose stock, it seems to me, is lower than it was three years ago: Howard Mills, Melinda Katz, John Liu, Gifford Miller. On the “rising star” status of two others, Tom Suozzi and Randy Daniels, the jury will be out for a few more months.

This year’s official up-and-comers: Byron Brown, David Paterson, and Ruben Diaz Jr. Also “Chautauqua Co. Exec. Greg Edwards (R): After beating a Dem incumbent in ’05, he’s someone with ‘potential for bigger office.'” Just so you know.

Dangers of Prognostication