Kean 40%, Menendez 38%

New Jerseyans have not seen a summer poll with a Republican leading in a race for United States Senator since 1972, when incumbent Clifford Case led former Congressman Paul Krebs by a 44%-22% margin. (Case won the race 63%-35%.) Here are some past summer polling numbers from the Eagleton Institute archives: * 1990: Incumbent Bill Bradley led Christine Todd Whitman by 46 points, 62%-16%. Bradley won in November by a 50%-47% margin. * 1994: Incumbent Frank Lautenberg was ahead of Assembly Speaker Garabed “Chuck” Haytaian by a 55%-29% margin, and won 50%-47%. * 1996: In the race between two Congressmen for Bradley’s open seat, Democrat Bob Torricelli led Republican Richard Zimmer by eight points, 39%-31%. Torricelli won, 53%-43%. * 2000: Competing for Lautenberg’s open seat, former Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine had an eight point lead over GOP Congressman Bob Franks, 39%-31%. Corzine won the seat, 50%-47%. * 2002: Incumbent Bob Torricelli led Republican Douglas Forrester by fourteen points, 43%-29%. By the end of September, Forrester had seized the lead and Torricelli withdrew. Frank Lautenberg won the seat by ten points, 54%-44%.

Kean 40%, Menendez 38%