Menendez pollster bashes Monmouth/Gannett poll methods

Bob Menendez’s pollster says that a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll showing Tom Kean Jr. ahead by six points uses flawed methodology that underrepresents minorities and oversamples Republicans. “These polling institutes will not correct them because to poll properly, as campaign pollsters do, may be more expensive than their budgets allow,” pollster Joel Benenson wrote in a memo to the Menendez campaign. “None of these public polls appear to be polling voters with a vote history of actually voting in off-year elections. Voting behavior is fairly consistent and those who voted in 2001, 2002 and 2005 are a different group than those who vote in 2004. They are more committed voters and they are more likely to be affiliated with one party or the other than the pool of registered voters, although Independents are still high in New Jersey.” Benenson said that reporters should start to hold pollsters “accoutable.” “Our internal polling is rigorous in using only actual voter sample lists that includes past vote history so we capture off-year voters. We regularly see a net plus of 6 points of Democrats in our polling which is consistent with voter history,” Bensenson wrote. “The notion that the electorate in New Jersey is suddenly as Republican as it is Democratic is the fatal flaw in the Monmouth poll. They have a self ID sample that is 27 points Democratic And 27% Republican. This is simply way too Republican and completely exposes this poll as flawed.” “Even if one argues that self-ID changes, neither in our consistent polling in NJ or in our polling in any state in the nation right now is the percent of voters who are self-Identifying as Republicans higher than normal. Even registered Republicans today are more likely to self-ID as Independents because of their significant dissatisfaction with the war, with Bush and with the direction of the country,” said Benenson. “More importantly, minorities are significantly underrepresented in this poll. The Black and Hispanic vote in a year when no minority candidate is running has historically been either just under or at 20%. Yet the Monmouth poll has a total minority sample of only 14%. This is rather egregious and should have been corrected by the pollsters.”

Menendez pollster bashes Monmouth/Gannett poll methods