New Jersey is likely to lose a congressional seat after the 2010 Census, according to an Election Data Services report.
“The 2007 estimates bring the data one year closer to the official census that will be taken in 2010. The new information has allowed Election Data Services, Inc. to generate 2010 population projections based on several different models of change that is apparent in the newly released data,” the report said. “First, there is a ‘long-term’ trend model that reflects the overall change that has occurred so far this decade; that is from 2000 to 2007, and projects it to 2010. Second, a ‘midterm’ trend model uses the population change that has occurred from 2005 to 2007. Finally, a ‘short-term’ trend model incorporates the change that has occurred in just the past year, from 2006 to 2007, and carries that rate of change forward to 2010.”
Based on all three models of the 2010 projections, New Jersey will lose one of its thirteen House seats.