A memo yesterday detailed the Edwards campaign’s hopeful “new plan” of making the Democratic primary a race about delegates. Here’s another, showing how that plan will be applied specifically to New York State.
It notes that in 2004 “John Edwards won at least 15 percent of the vote in 23 of New York’s 29 congressional districts” with a message that resonated “with blue-collar and rural voters.”
Full memo:
FROM: Peter Hatch, Senior Adviser – John Edwards for President
RE: New York Campaign Strategy
DATE: January 29, 2008
The contest for the Democratic nomination is not about winning states — it is about winning
delegates. Although New York has been Senator Clinton’s home state for more than seven
years, John Edwards has an excellent chance at winning a meaningful number of delegates in
New York.
What to Expect. An aggressive grassroots ground campaign — with multiple forays into radio
and on op-ed pages across the Empire State.
Who Are We Speaking to. Our target demographics are:
. Voters fed-up with the broken system in Washington
. Voters who believe the middle class has been neglected by politicians in Washington
. Voters who have had enough of the personal and destructive attacks between our two rivals
What’s at Stake. Two hundred and eighty delegates — 151 of whom will be chosen on
February 5th. Under the state’s delegate apportionment rules, delegates are awarded based on
both statewide performance and performance in individual congressional districts. A candidate
who collects 15 percent of the vote statewide or 15 percent of the vote in an individual
congressional district is rewarded with pledged delegates to the Democratic National
Convention.
What’s the Record. In 2004, New York held its primary on March 2, at the very end of the
active contest for the Democratic nomination won by John Kerry. Nonetheless, John Edwards
won at least 15 percent of the vote in 23 of New York’s 29 congressional districts. Moreover,
because of the resonance of Edwards’ message with blue-collar and rural voters, Edwards won
between 27 and 34 percent of the vote in all nine congressional districts north and west of
Albany. Forty-six convention delegates will be awarded from these nine districts alone.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
2004
EDWARDS
VOTE
SHARE
26th Cong. Dist. – Western NY 34%
29th Cong. Dist. – Western NY 32%
27th Cong. Dist. – Western NY 32%
25th Cong. Dist. – Central NY 31%
24th Cong. Dist. – Central 30%
23rd Cong. Dist. – Northern NY 30%
21st Cong. Dist. – Capital District 30%
20th Cong. Dist. – Eastern NY from the Hudson Valley to the North Country 28%
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
2004
EDWARDS
VOTE
SHARE
28th Cong. Dist. – Western NY 27%
13th Cong. Dist. – Staten Island and South Brooklyn 24%
22nd Cong. Dist. – Catskills and Lower Southern Tier 24%
Did Someone Say Volunteers. Eighty-six New York-based chapters of OneCorps – the civic
engagement and volunteer networks that John Edwards started more than a year ago – are
leading the ground charge for the campaign in New York.
Who Else Is Working with Us. Even in Sen. Clinton’s home state, Edwards enjoys support
from robust labor unions, like the Transport Workers Union (TWU Local 100) downstate and the
United Steelworkers upstate, representing 70,000 members, and grassroots support from
members of the United Auto Workers and other unions.
Where We Stand Nationally. Following the first four contests, the fight for delegates remains
close between the three leading candidates – but the vast majority have not been awarded:
Delegates won in IA, NH, NV & SC:
Obama: 63
Clinton: 48
Edwards: 26
Magic Number to Capture the Nomination: 2025
Total Number of Delegates: 4049
As the table above shows, this race is far from decided — and will be a long process for each of
the three leading candidates. While some political reporters might wince at the prospect of
having to cover three candidates for an extended period of time, this is very good news for
voters. Over the coming weeks and months, voters across the country will have their say. While
no one can accurately predict the outcome, one thing is certain: the American people will decide
the nomination, not the media.
Bill Clinton didn’t win a primary or caucus in 1992 until Georgia. He didn’t clinch the
nomination until he defeated Jerry Brown in New York in April. This race will go to the
candidate that can compete widely and over the long haul. We will be broadly competitive,
accumulating groups of delegates across the February 5th states. Ultimately, we expect the race
to narrow to one of the two celebrity candidates and us — and when that happens, we are
confident that the remaining contests will break in our direction as voters are finally offered the
choice the national media has ignored all year — the most progressive, most electable candidate
in the race, John Edwards.
