Quinnipiac released a poll this morning that shows Rudy Giuliani’s support in New York may not be as anemic as the Marist and Siena polls from the last few days have shown.
In this survey, Giulaini and John McCain both have 30 percent of the support of New York Republicans. Perhaps more importantly, Giulaini supporters appear more committed to the former mayor than McCain’s supporters–71 percent of Giulaini say that are "not too likely" or "not likely at all" to switch candidates, while only 46 percent of McCain supporters say the same.
That could mean that if Giuliani somehow wrangles a win in Florida, hometown Republican support could congeal around him again.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s support among overall Democrats is still very strong–she leads Barack Obama 51-21. However, with last night’s debate and Saturday’s South Carolina primary not yet resonating in poll numbers, there may be a shift in Democratic support before the February 5 New York primary.
Here’s the release: Arizona Sen. John McCain is tied 30 – 30 percent with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani among New York State likely Republican presidential primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 9 percent, with 8 percent each for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Sen. Hillary Clinton has 51 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with 25 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 11 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll’s first survey in this election cycle of New York’s likely voters, a more select group than the wider range of registered voters surveyed in prior polls. Among black Democratic likely primary voters, Sen. Obama leads 45 – 37 percent, while Sen. Clinton leads among whites 52 – 21 percent. Clinton also leads 54 – 20 percent among women and 47 – 32 percent among men. “If he can’t make it here, he can’t make it anywhere. What happens to Mayor Giuliani’s presidential prospects if he doesn’t score a resounding victory in his native New York?” asked Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “While he’s concentrating on the January 29 Florida presidential primary, Giuliani is out of sight and maybe out of mind in New York.“ “If Giuliani wins big in Florida, maybe that catapults him to a big win the following week in New York and other Super Tuesday states. But a January 14 Quinnipiac University poll in Florida showed a four-way Republican horse race,” Carroll added. “On the Democratic side, Sen. Clinton has a resounding 2 – 1 lead in the state that sent her to the Senate,” Carroll added. “But watch out for the Black vote. When one of ‘their own’ is on the ballot, such as Catholics for Kennedy in 1960 or Latinos for Ferrer in 2005, a group’s votes might come in higher than pre-election polls indicate. “And once we know who the nominees are, and whether Mayor Michael Bloomberg is going to make it a three-way race, we can start thinking about November.” A total of 71 percent of Giuliani’s Republican backers say they are “not too likely” or “not likely at all” to change their minds, compared to 46 percent of McCain supporters. Among Democrats, 74 percent of Clinton supporters and 62 percent of Obama backers say they are not likely to change their minds. “One bright spot for Mayor Giuliani is the depth of commitment among his supporters. A lot of McCain backers could swing back to Giuliani in the next two weeks,” Carroll said. From January 14 – 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 331 New York State likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent, and 544 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.