Murray Sabrin’s campaign has never lacked self-confidence: in an e-mail earlier today, the Sabrin camp touts “internal and external polls” in predicting a 35%-34% victory over Dick Zimmer in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, with 31% for Joseph Pennacchio – if turnout stays below 175,000. If the turnout exceeds 200,000, the Sabrin campaign says, “Dr. Murray Sabrin will be running away with the victory and the percentages aren't necessary to discuss!”
The Sabrin memo:
Overall conditions:
Based on internal and external polls, 75% of New Jersey voters want to bring our troops home from Iraq, and 17% of New Jersey Republicans "Strongly Disapprove" of our efforts in Iraq. Keep in mind, Senator John McCain received 54% in the February 5th NJ GOP Primary of those who "Strongly Disapprove" of our efforts in Iraq (Ron Paul only received 17% of these voters). In addition, almost 50% of New Jersey Republicans are either "Angry" or "Dissatisfied" about the Bush Administration (with the breakdown 14% Angry and 35% Dissatisfied). Once again, Senator McCain received over 55% of the NJ Republicans who were unhappy with President Bush while Ron Paul only received 8%.
Turnout will be very low. Over 75% of typical Primary-voting Republicans are unaware of the Primary today. Most voted in the February 5th Presidential Primary and because of the lack of coverage in the newspapers, they just don't know. Coupled with the weakness of the GOP Party Bosses and their organizations (if they have any) have generated very little excitement for the "establishment" candidates. The only candidate there has been any enthusiasm for has been Dr. Sabrin (he is the only candidate with donors and volunteers from every county in NJ and 49 states). In the February 5th Presidential Republican Primary the total turnout was around 550,000. We expect there will be about 160,000 voters turning out today.
Key races: Open Primary in the 3rd and 7th Congressional Districts will play a major factor in the overall turnout.
3rd Congressional District: Ocean and Burlington Counties will have the highest turnout in the state with about 27,000 and 19,500 respectively. In addition, the 8th-most Republican town in New Jersey, Cherry Hill (Camden County) is also part of this District. There are three candidates fighting in the Republican Party. Jack Kelly is the candidate of the Ocean County Party Boss, George Gilmore but has very little support in Burlington. Chris Myers is the candidate of the Burlington County Party Boss, William Layton, but has very little support in Ocean County. Justin Murphy is running with the support of Dr. Murray Sabrin and former gubernatorial candidate, Bret Schundler. In Ocean County Sabrin and Murphy are running with a full slate of seasoned candidates supported by a well-organized anti-corruption group. As in Ocean, Sabrin and Murphy are running with a full slate of seasoned candidates in Burlington County. And in Camden County, Sabrin and Murphy are the only candidates running with a full slate of candidates. This will be the major upset of the night – Sabrin and Murphy will win Ocean, Burlington and Camden Counties!
7th Congressional District: Hunterdon, Middlesex, Somerset and Union will have higher turnout than the statewide average today with about 6,500, 7,500, 10,000, and 8,000 votes in each respective county. While Joe Pennacchio "has the line" in all four of these counties and would normally give him a considerable electoral advantage, Dick Zimmer represented Hunterdon and Somerset for many years and will eat in considerably to Pennacchio's candidacy and Dr. Sabrin has a tremendous grassroots effort in both of those counties. While Pennacchio "has the line" in Union County, Dr. Sabrin has a full slate of candidates and will run up a considerable electoral advantage in this County. There are seven candidates running in this open Primary which will cause the increase in this district, however, Dr. Sabrin is the only Senate candidate with a running-mate throughout the District, Darren Young. Darren received tremendous response from his message of bringing the troops home from Iraq and returning our government to its constitutional roots. While Darren will have a difficult time winning the Primary, he has a very good chance of coming in second or third.
There are no competitive races in Morris or Bergen Counties so the turnout will be below the statewide average. We expect only 12,000 and 11,500 to turnout in Morris and Bergen respectively. This will have a serious impact on Joe Pennacchio's prospects.
In addition to the complimentary campaigns mentioned above, Dr. Sabrin is running with candidates in each of the following counties where either Zimmer or Pennacchio "have the line" but will increase Dr. Sabrin's percentage of the total vote: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Essex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Salem and Sussex. If Kate Erber and Donna Ward receive over 25% against incumbent Republican Congressmen Rodney Frelinghuysen and Frank LoBiondo respectively, then Dr. Sabrin will increase his overall vote in those counties. Two additional upsets tonight will be James Hogan in the 6th Congressional District and Fernando Powers in the 1st Congressional District – they have run great campaigns and their opponents are completely relying on very weak Party Bosses.
If the turnout stays below 175,000 then we expect the final results to be: Dr. Murray Sabrin 34.9%, Dick Zimmer 34.2% and Joe Pennacchio 30.9%.
If the turnout is higher than 175,000 then we expect Pennacchio to benefit and take more voters from Zimmer with the final results: Dr. Murray Sabrin 36.6%, Dick Zimmer 32.1% and Joe Pennacchio 31.3%
If the turnout is greater than 200,000 then it means Dr. Murray Sabrin will be running away with the victory and the percentages aren't necessary to discuss!
