“It’s going to change,” said Mr. Schumer, who argued that younger Southerners had already shown themselves more open to Mr. Obama than older ones. He said Virginia, North Carolina and Florida had increasingly less Southern characteristics. “And here’s my big prediction: Texas will be the next California.”
The reason, he said, was an increased Hispanic vote, less conservative suburbs and more “thinking-type workers who tend to be more open to Democrats.”
In other words, Mr. Schumer sees the Republicans in very bad shape.
“They are where we were in 1980,” said Mr. Schumer, adding, “It’s like where we were but worse. Since they have had such success, for so long, their base still believes it.” He said that if the conservatives keep throwing out the “old chestnuts, they will be out of power for a long time.”
Ironically, Mr. Schumer thinks the only person who can help bring the Republicans back is Mr. McCain.
“If he can shake himself off, like a dog who has just gotten out of the pool, of all the Bush trappings that he adopted,” he said. “My guess is that if you went deep inside John McCain’s head, he’d say, ‘I made a mistake by paying too much attention to the base.’”
He also sees a bright future for Mrs. Clinton, though it may be a distant one.
Mr. Schumer said that Mrs. Clinton would have helped down-ballot candidates, like Mr. Obama did, because there was a “Democratic wind.”
He also argued that she would become more of a force in the Senate, but said, “You can’t become a Ted Kennedy overnight. It took him a long time.”
Mrs. Clinton seemed to hit a roadblock on the way to becoming a Senate titan this week when Mr. Kennedy squashed the creation of a health care subcommittee she had sought to lead. Mr. Schumer said that wouldn’t necessarily prevent her from having an important voice.
“She’ll have real effect,” said Mr. Schumer. “And you know a lot of it won’t be ‘Hillary Clinton’s bill.’ But when she stands up in Senate caucus and talks about issues, people pay attention because she has a lot of respect.”
Mr. Schumer seems well aware that he himself is now set up to enjoy more personal influence inside the chamber that he has before.
“I can go to a Claire McCaskill or a Bob Casey—‘Hey, here is the dilemma we have in the leadership and here’s why we need your vote.’ And I think they believe I’ll tell them the leadership’s point of view, but I never would steer them wrong for something bad for themselves.”
But he takes pains to balance any talk about his power—whether the subject of a future leadership role is mentioned or not—by paying careful tribute to the sitting majority leader.
“Let me just take my hat off to Harry Reid. He is a great inside man. He molds that caucus into a team the way I have seen virtually no one else do it. He’s very good.”
jhorowitz@observer.com
