If Anthony Weiner drops out of the mayor’s race (Tony Avella notwithstanding!), it could leave New Yorkers without a competitive Democratic mayoral primary, driving down turnout for everyone on the ballot.
Jerry Skurnik, a political numbers cruncher not affiliated with any campaign, said a Democratic mayoral primary featuring both Anthony Weiner and Bill Thompson could have drawn between 500,000 and 600,000 voters. Now, with Weiner looking like he may drop out, Skurnik said he predicts about only 400,00 voters to hit the polls during the September primary.
Who does that help?
“Two groups helped by lower turnout are candidates who are well-known or have organizational support,” Skurnik said. In the public advocate’s race, that would be Mark Green, said Skurnik. He said it was not immediately clear who would benefit most in the comptroller’s race.
Joe Mercurio, a Democratic consultant not working on any of the campaigns, said, even a competitive down-ballot races won’t boost turnout.
“The comptroller candidates are going to be responsible for the turnout? That never happens,” said Mercurio.