Politicians generally hate answering question about internal party politics, so it would be easy to read Kirsten Gillibrand’s response to a questions about a prospective David Paterson–Andrew Cuomo gubernatorial primary next year as an artful dodge.
“I really think the politics will take care of themselves,” she said, adding that “because the budget is as difficult as it is, that all our delegation and our statewide leaders will be focused on solving those problems. I really do.”
Clearly, Gillibrand didn’t want to wade into the subject with much specificity, and who could blame her? Paterson is the man who single-handedly made her a U.S. senator earlier this year, while her old HUD patron Cuomo is, as poll after poll continues to find, exceedingly likely to emerge from 2010 as the new governor—and the most powerful Democratic Party figure in the state.
But, even if it was intended as vacant non-speak, Gillibrand’s main point is actually spot-on: When it comes to the Paterson-Cuomo drama, the politics probably will take care of themselves, and it is very unlikely that there will be a primary in September 2010.
Not that there isn’t fierce jockeying and gamesmanship between both camps already under way. Cuomo obviously wants to be governor (and has for a long time) and knows that Paterson’s political standing has plummeted to almost unprecedented depths. At the same time, Paterson has made it clear that he wants to keep his job and is now scrambling to fortify himself against a Cuomo insurrection.
But the battle will almost certainly be settled before any votes are cast in the primary or at the state party convention, which will be held around this time next spring. Realistically, there are two paths to resolution, and one is far more likely than the other.
Under the most likely scenario, the same basic dynamics that prevail today will continue to dominate into next year. That would mean Paterson’s approval rating staying in the basement, with Cuomo’s lingering in the stratosphere.
This is the most likely outcome because Paterson has so thoroughly lost the confidence of voters. He in no longer starting from scratch, as he was when he assumed office a year ago and the public was ready to believe in him. He has blown that opportunity, and voters have emphatically given up on him. Winning them back, even if the coming months are more tranquil for Paterson, will be exceedingly difficult. And, given the magnitude of the problems facing the state and his demonstrated on-the-job clumsiness, things are unlikely to get much easier for Paterson.
At the same time, Cuomo is in a good position to keep his numbers right where they are. He has masterfully exploited the PR potential of his office, positioning himself as a crusader for the public with cases in which there is no compelling opposing viewpoint. Instead of being tied down by an ugly budget and restive legislature, Cuomo is free to pursue headlines. There’s no reason to suspect this will change, so there’s no reason to suspect his popularity will dip between now and next spring.
Under this scenario, then, Paterson will spend the rest of this year and the early part of next year vowing to seek and win a full term, even as the polls continue to show him 40 to 50 points behind Cuomo in a potential primary. Most major party figures will offer lukewarm support or simply stay on the sidelines. Then, as the convention approaches, the movement to Cuomo will begin, and like dominos, one Democratic leader and organization after another will fall into Cuomo’s camp. Recognizing that he’s about to be embarrassed at a state convention and again in the primary, Paterson will then bow out.
An alternate version of this scenario would have Paterson reaching this conclusion sometime earlier, and seeking a golden parachute—perhaps with the assistance of the primary-phobic White House, which could organize an ambassadorship or some other face-saving arrangement. Either way, the field would then be clear for Cuomo. This is essentially the scenario under which Mitt Romney bloodlessly toppled a sitting Republican governor (Jane Swift) in Massachusetts in 2002.
This process could be hastened in the unlikely event that Rudy Giuliani, by far the strongest prospective G.O.P. candidate, actually enters the race, a move that would create urgency among Democrats to unite behind their most electable candidate.
The far less likely scenario would require a marked change in the Paterson-Cuomo dynamics between now and next year. This is unlikely, but not impossible.
Paterson has hardly shown the sort of political skill or intensity as governor to be able to turn things around by himself. But perhaps there’s some kind of crisis through which Paterson wins the public over with his leadership. Or maybe, somehow, a flood of good news comes gushing out of Albany, lifting the public’s confidence in their governor. Something like this could elevate Paterson’s poll numbers.
Either that, or Cuomo would have to self-destruct by getting caught up in some shock scandal or, even more unlikely given his self-discipline these days, by being breathtakingly obnoxious.
For Paterson, the key is to get to within striking distance of Cuomo in the polls, not necessarily to take the lead. Right now, he trails by about 50 points. His goal should be to cut that to less than 10 by this time next year.
If Paterson can accomplish that, then he will have restored his viability as a candidate. He would then be able to tell movers and shakers in the party with a straight face that he can win the primary and the general election. They would listen, too: the power of incumbency would suddenly come into play. The dominos wouldn’t automatically fall for Cuomo.
And this would probably force the A.G. to blink, because the last thing Cuomo wants is another primary campaign against a reasonably popular black candidate. His failed bid against Carl McCall in 2002 nearly devastated Cuomo’s career; a viable Paterson with significant party and public support would surely give him serious pause—even if there were still a reasonable chance he could prevail in the primary. Cuomo’s strategy hinges on avoiding a primary, and not being seen as the man whose ambition derailed the state’s first black governor.
Right now, it’s a very good bet that Cuomo will get his wish. And it’s an even better bet that, either way, there won’t be a primary next year.
