Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
While it is too early to tell for sure, it seems that the distressing news coming from polls in New Jersey is that Jon Corzine actually has a pulse.
Recent polls have shown the Chris Christie lead drop from double figures to 7 points in one poll and 4 points in another and a one-time Lonegan lead is now a virtual dead heat. How could this possibly have happened?
Well, we have two campaigns, which while they are very different in message and style are still simply not connecting with the New Jersey electorate in a way that will carry over into a general election. Republicans need to understand that they cannot be chameleons and change who and what they were in order to suit a constituency for a primary and then change for a general election.
Bret Schundler tried it, Doug Forrester tried it and we got Jim McGreevey and Jon Corzine. When Doug Forrester was running against former US Senator Bob Torricelli for the US Senate, he was ahead. Then our “illustrious” NJ Supreme Court stepped in and changed the rules.
When he ran for Governor, he closed ground to within 2 points, changed his campaign and lost going away. Brent had trouble getting a nomination. Then he changed who he was, got the nomination and because he changed who he was, lost going away.
This time Chris Christie started out in the 90’s as a pro choice, republican freeholder. He tried to run against an incumbent republican state senator and could not get enough signatures to get on the ballot. He then approached the Morris County democrat chair to run as a democrat against the incumbent republican. Seems if he doesn’t get his way, he will change who he is. Can’t do much more than pulling an Arlen Specter in reverse.
Now we have Steve Lonegan. Mr. Lonegan was the Mayor of Bogota, a small berg in Bergen County. Steve ran for several offices and lost most of them, but he ran for Mayor in a democrat dominated town and won more than once. Nice feat.
However, Lonegan’s trick is being the conservative pony in this race and then convincing moderates that he is still the best person to get behind given the history of republican moderates in past elections. One thing for sure, neither candidate can win with a fragmented party after the primary. Christie’s problem is convincing the conservatives that are usually the strongest voices in a republican primary that he is who he says he is today, rather than who he actually was some 10 years ago.
Lonegan has been very detailed on specifics. That scares a large number of state constituencies, specifically, unions, urban school districts, state workers and those who depend on state services. He is being painted as well to the right of center, but true to his political history. He wants to downsize government across the board and cut taxes. Much the same thing we’ve heard for so long from so many. Only I think this guy is serious and that scares the folks I mentioned earlier.
Christie, while not being specific on anything, has pretty much said the same thing. So, the dilemma for both candidates is not who has the ability to win the primary, but who has the ability to convey their primary message in such a way so as to not have to retrench so much for the general election that they don’t sound like a totally new candidate.
The one thing about Jon Corzine is that he is clearly a liberal in virtually every way. So liberal that spending $50 million to $60 million of his own money won’t faze him in order to win a second term.
Because both Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan have agreed to accept matching funds, they are capped at about $10 million total. That is at least a 5 to 1 spending disadvantage in the largest media market in the US.
The republican primary presents a most unique challenge. No matter who is left standing, will they will be left with injuries from which they can recover or will the injuries be electorally terminal. Understand one thing for sure. There have been no surprises in the primary so far to the Corzine campaign. You can bet they have the best opposition research money can buy and nothing that has been written about either candidate is new at all
If, as has traditionally been the case, the “camps” of either candidate walks after the primary, the injuries will be electorally terminal and the opportunity of the 21st century will have passed the New Jersey republicans by.
They will have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and there will be 4 more years of a democrat in the governor’s office. He will be known asNew Jersey's latest political Lazerus, Jon Corzine.
