If Christopher Christie becomes the Republican nominee for Governor, he'll have thirty days to decide on a running mate. Republican leaders close to the former U.S. Attorney seem to think the race for Lt. Governor is down to two finalists: Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) and State Sen. Diane Allen (R-Edgewater Park), with Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan sitting third on the list.
Kean's fledgling candidacy is helped by his previous statewide experience and his knowledge of state issues. He was the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006, and while he sometimes struggled as a candidate – his avoidance of reporters in an Atlantic City elevator comes to find – his 44% in a bad Republican year had to be a growing experience. And he's been vetted by the thorough opposition research of Bob Menendez, which means it is unlikely that anything in Kean's background would embarrass Christie.
He has won good reviews for his role as Senate Republican leader from colleagues who view him as more partisan and more aggressive than his predecessor, Leonard Lance. He seems well-liked, and understands vast details of state government – a quality that might be a good balance for Christie, who has served as a Freeholder and as a federal prosecutor.
The 40-year-old Kean comes from a prominent political family: his father served two terms as Governor and later as Drew University President and as Chairman of the 9/11 Commission; his grandfather was a ten-term Congressman, and his great-grandfather served in the United States Senate.
But Kean's greatest weakness as a candidate for Lt. Governor is his natural hesitation to be an attack dog. While he has become more combative since his 2006 defeat, he is not exactly the kind of guy who will criticize Democrats just for being Democrats. He's often reluctant to get his hands dirty. Kean may not attract voters that Christie won't get on his own, but he won't hurt Christie either.
Allen, 61, has a legitimate base in South Jersey, where she was well known as a television news anchorwoman for a Philadelphia network affiliate before launching a career in politics in 1995. She has won five races in a district that has elected Democrats to the Assembly for the last twelve years, and got received seasoning as a candidate for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination in 2002. She helps Christie in Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties – places Republicans will need to better than they have in recent statewide elections if they want to beat Gov. Jon Corzine. And Allen might be more willing than Kean to be act in a fiercely partisan manner.
The pro-choice Allen is also likely to offend conservative Republicans at a time Christie is seeking to bring the GOP together. But neither are Kean and Donovan, so that won't matter very much. The fight for the nomination against Steve Lonegan forced Christie to move to the right in a state which hasn't elected a conservative Republican to statewide office since the 1940's. A moderate running mate helps Christie return to the center in time to battle Corzine.
Allen could also offend Burlington County Republican leaders Glenn Paulsen and Bill Layton, who were early supporters of Christie's campaign for Governor and who have become bitter rivals with the Senator from the seventh district. Some insiders think the Burlington benefits by having Allen at the top of the ticket: she'll help Paulsen and Layton keep control of the county courthouse. Republicans have a 3-2 majority on the Board of Freeholders, and two of their three seats are up in 2009.
If Allen is elected Lt. Governor, it would give Paulsen and Layton the chance to appoint a new Senator – presumably someone more interested in taking advice from the party leadership than Allen has been. The GOP would have to defend the politically competitive seat in a November 2010 special election, but with nearly year of incumbency, the new Senator – possibly former Freeholder Aubrey Fenton (who would be the first African American Republican to serve in the New Jersey Senate) – would be a strong contender to hold the seat.
Before picking Allen, the Christie campaign will need to ask her some personal questions regarding health issues: she missed several months this year as she recovered from pneumonia. The Christie camp will also need to close question Allen about contracts that have gone to Vidcomm, the video production company she owns.
Some Republicans say Donovan, who has spent 21 years as a County Clerk, may not offer the level of gravitas that Kean and Allen do, despite her one-term as an Assemblywoman in the 1980's and her short tenure as GOP State Chair. But she also doesn't have a long voting record for Democrats to pick through. Of the three, she might be the most willing to follow whatever script the Christie campaign puts in front of her. And voters seem to like her.
She has a strained relationship with Bergen County Republican Chairman Robert Yudin – not that Christie will or should care – but he could have a problem with a few of Donovan's friends and advisors.
Donovan may just be Allen-lite: they are moderates, strong campaigners, proven vote getters, and women. Donovan has a strong base in South Bergen, but the votes she brings to the Christie ticket is likely less in total number than those Allen can add in South Jersey. If Christie is willing to pick a moderate woman, perhaps Allen helps him win more than Donovan does.
