Bill Thompson’s Mountain

It’s not really a surprise, but it is somewhat remarkable that after last week’s historically apathetic primary Bill Thompson’s poll numbers are’t showing much of a bump. Although a record-low 11 percent of registered voters turned out to vote, and fewer people voted for mayor than for other citywide offices, Mr. Thompson did, after all, win the Democratic primary.

Today, the first post-primary Quinnipiac polls came out, and Mr. Thompson still trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 16 points. What is somewhat surprising is that Bloomberg and Thompson are tied among Democratic voters. Among black voters, a demographic he has struggled to win over, Mr. Thompson leads by only 18 percent. Mr. Bloomberg, on the other hand, leads Thompson 62-26 among white voters (and also leads among Hispanic voters).

In case that’s too many numbers, the pollster gives us an extensive metaphor:

“[Thompson] has a 16-point mountain to climb and less than six weeks to do it,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “And while Thompson is climbing that mountain, Bloomberg is rolling huge rocks, in the form of a multi-million-dollar media blitz, down on his head.”

Of course, it could be worse.

Bill Thompson’s Mountain