Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 42%-38%, with 13% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina-based firm that works primarily for Democrats. Christie's lead is just fractionally above the margin of error.
Two weeks ago, PPP had the race in a statistical dead heat, with Christie ahead of Corzine 40%-39% and 13% for Daggett. According to previous polls, Daggett was taking more votes from Christie than he was from Corzine; now Daggett's voters, by a 44%-32% margin, say that Corzine would be their second choice.
Among independents, Christie leads Corzine 44%-25%, with 24% for Daggett. Christie has 51%-40% favorables among independents, while Corzine is upside-down at 24%-70%. Daggett's favorables with independents are 37%-32%.
"This race is going right down to the wire," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "The Daggett voters seem to be pretty volatile so if they go back to the Corzine camp he'll have a good shot of pulling it out. The campaign that does the better job of turning out its voters will win."
The poll has Daggett's negatives climbing: his favorables were at 30%-24% on October 13; now he's upside-down at 31%-36%. His increased negatives come largely from Republicans.
Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables: 33%-60%. Christie is nearly even: 45%-44%.
More than eight out of ten likely voters (83%) say they are solidly committed to their candidate. 17% say they could change their mind. Nearly four out of ten likely voters (38%) say they will be voting against someone more than voting for someone.
PPP surveyed 630 likely voters between October 23-26. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.