A little bit more about that SurveyUSA poll showing Michael Bloomberg widening his lead over Bill Thompson.
The results were a little bit of a surprise, at least if you believed the last poll, which showed Thompson gaining on Bloomberg.
The difference can be explained, in part, by the the way the most recent poll was conducted. Last time, SurveyUSA referred to Bloomberg has a Republican and Thompson as a Democrat. In the latest poll, candidates were only identified by their names.
SurveyUSA wrote that they “incorrectly identified him,” Bloomberg, “as a Republican.”
“Although Bloomberg’s name will appear on both the Republican party and Independence party lines on the ballot, Bloomberg is an independent,” SurveyUSA wrote.
The impact is pretty noticeable.
A week ago, when 1,000 city adults were asked who they’d vote for, “Republican Mike Bloomberg” or “Democrat Bill Thompson,” Bloomberg led 51 to 43 percent. Sorta close.
Yesterday, when 1,100 city adults were asked who they’d vote for, “Mike Bloomberg” or “Bill Thompson,” Bloomberg led, 55 to 38 percent. Not so close.
Bloomberg gained more than twenty points in the Bronx, from 43 to 61 percent. Bloomberg’s support among Hispanics jumped from 52 percent to 61 percent.
Without party identification, Thompson’s numbers dropped among Democrats, going from 49 to 42 percent. (Bloomberg’s numbers among Democrats jumped from 46 to 53 percent.)
Among African-Americans, Thompson’s numbers fell twelve points, from 68 to 56 percent.
A Thompson spokesman said without identifying parties, this poll has “a huge, huge problem.” Which doesn’t seem unreasonable, given the fact that many voters will consider Bloomberg a Republican regardless of how he’s registered, since he’s running on the Republican line.
Another pollster, Peter Feld, emailed to say, “I suspect polling variation rather than a seismic shift. The earlier one struck me as an anomaly.”