Bloomberg Spends Big, Wins Small, Survives on Independence Party Votes

Bill Thompson beat Michael Bloomberg among New Yorkers who cast their votes on the Democratic and Republican lines, 479,521 to 414,242.

But Bloomberg’s margin of victory last night was delivered by the Independence Party line, where the mayor got 142,817 votes, compared to the 27,196 Thompson got on his major third party line, the Working Families Party, according to unofficial results from the city Board of Elections.

This can be attributed mostly to the fact that lots of Bloomberg voters weren’t Republicans, and couldn’t bring themselves to vote for him on the Republican line. But Fred Newman, Jackie Salit and Lenora Fulani will spend the next four years claiming that Bloomberg owes them, and they won’t be entirely wrong.

Anyway, before the polls closed yesterday, a handful of (brave!) political observers sent in their predictions for yesterday’s results (margin of victory, voter turnout) and, for fun, they also took a stab at how much Bloomberg’s campaign bill will finally end up being. (We won’t know that last answer for a few more weeks, but why not start speculating.)

For what it’s worth, Benjamin Fried and Peter Feld seemed to know something the rest of us didn’t. I’ll be taking their mutterings a bit more seriously next time.

Last night’s predictions:

Yoel Lefkowitz: Bloomberg, 58-42

Ira Stoll: Bloomberg, 57-41, turnout: 1.1 million

Joseph Mercurio: Bloomberg, 57.5 – 42.5, turnout: >1 million

Steve Kramer: Bloombeg, 55.5 to 44.5

Chorie Sicha: Bloomberg, 55-45, turnout: 1,156,000

Azi Paybarah: Bloomberg, 55-45, turnout: 1,100,000

Ravi Batra: Bloomberg, 54-46, turnout: same as primary

Gatemouth: Bloomberg, 54-46

Bill O’Reilly: Bloomberg, 54-44

Chris Smith: Bloomberg 55-43, turnout: 1.1 million

Jerry Skurnik: Bloomberg, 54-43, turnout: 1.2 million

Neal Kwatra: Bloomberg, 53-47, turnout: 925,000

Michael Oliva: Bloomberg, 54-47

Peter Feld: Bloomberg, 53-46, turnout: 23%

Michael Levoff: Bloomberg, 53-43

Jason Horowitz: Bloomberg, 52-43

Lew Fidler: Bloomberg, 52-44

Benjamin Fried: Bloomberg, 51-47 (Billy Talen at >1), turnout: 1.8 million

Aaron Naparstek: Thompson, 50.2-49.8

Bloomberg’s bill:

Ira Stoll: $100 million

Ravi Batra: $101 million

Wayne Barrett: $103 million

Doug Muzzio: $119,376,215

Joseph Mercurio: $125 million

Ibrahim Kahn: $134 million

Benjamin Fried: $134 million

Aaron Naparstek: $147 million

Adam Green: “If forfty bajillion is still a recognized number, that.”

Michael Oliva: “way more than necessary!”

Bloomberg Spends Big, Wins Small, Survives on Independence Party Votes