Eagleton: Adler leads Runyan by 6 points, but more voters say they’re undecided than support incumbent

U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) holds a slender lead over Republican challenger Jon Runyan, among all registered voters according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released this morning. 

Adler leads Runyan 31% to 25%, with third party candidate Peter DeStefano polling at 4%. Thirty-four percent of respondents say they “don’t know” who they support, while another 6% say they will not vote in the Congressional race.

In a mano-a-mano, Adler leads Runyan 35% to 28%, according to the poll, with 23% in the “don’t know” category and 13% not voting.

rd Congressional District. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.

“It is extremely hard in August to predict who will really vote in November,” said poll director Dr. David Redlawsk. Thus, while a simple likely voter screen suggests that Adler does better, we do not put a lot of stock in such a screen at this point. It remains too early to be sure who will be most motivated to turn out on election day.” 

The poll reports that Adler leads among all registered voters, but Runyan pulls just ahead (36 to 35%) among voters “who are paying the most attention to the campaign.”

Among “registered voters who say they are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ likely to vote in November, Adler’s lead grows to 10 points, 40% to 30%,” with 22% saying they don’t know and 8% saying they would not vote in this race. DeStefano’s presence in the poll doesn’t change those results, and Redlawsk said the controversial, self-professed Tea Party consevative is “not much of a factor.”

Redlawsk said that among Republican voters, “60% say they will vote for Runyan, while 56% of Democrats will support Adler,” while 19% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats don’t know who they support. Among independents, Adler has a small lead, 23 to 19%, but 45% say they don’t know who they will support.

Between August 5-8, pollsters called 421 registered voters living in the 3rd Congressional District.

The Runyan camp read the poll as good news. 

“Despite spending more than a half-million dollars in taxpayer money on glossy campaign mail and recorded phone messages trying to give himself an extreme makeover, career politician and Nancy Pelosi-rubberstamp, John Adler, barely gets over 30% of the vote in the Eagleton Institute poll released today – an embarrassingly bad result for any incumbent Congressman,” said Runyan Campaign Consultant Chris Russell.  “Furthermore, among voters who say they are paying close attention to the race, Jon Runyan actually leads Adler 36-35%.”  

Eagleton: Adler leads Runyan by 6 points, but more voters say they’re undecided than support incumbent