According to a new Siena poll released this morning, Democrat Kathy Hochul leads her Republican opponent, Jane Corwin, by 4 points in the special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District.
Hochul now leads 42 percent to 38 percent — a 9-point swing from the last Siena poll on April 29, when Hochul trailed Corwin by 5 points.
Jack Davis, a former Democratic candidate running on the Tea Party line, slipped from 23 percent last month to 12 percent in this morning’s poll.
Corwin’s unfavorability rating jumped from 49 percent, from 31 percent in the last poll. Her campaign has been dogged in recent weeks by calls to release an unedited version of a video recording that appears to show Davis assaulting her chief of staff. The 15-second clip was initially released as having been shot by a “volunteer” and Corwin has declined to call for the rest to be released, saying her chief of staff was acting on his own, unpaid time.
Hochul, meanwhile, saw those who view her favorably jump from 41 percent to 55 percent in the most recent survey.
Not surprisingly, those who list Medicare as their most important issue favor Hochul–who has harped on Corwin’s support for Paul Ryan’s controversial budget plan–while those most concerned with deficit reduction favor Corwin.
“Despite Hochul’s current lead, apparent momentum and strong favorability ratings, this race is not over yet,” said Dr. Don Levy, Director of the Siena Research Institute, in the release. “When asked, regardless of whom they personally support, which candidate they think will win, forty-one percent say Corwin and forty-one percent say Hochul. Needless to say, turnout, turnout and turnout. Every vote will count on Tuesday in CD 26.”
Crosstabs, if you’re curious, are here.