Hochul, Davis and Corwin. (graphic via www.politicsplus.org)
By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It’s unclear when exactly a winner will be declared. Part of the reason is because of Jane Corwin’s court-ordered injunction on declaring a winner, and, more generally, it’s a close race and counting paper ballots is never a quick or easy process.
Most people are going with public opinion polls, which give Democrat Kathy Hochul a slight lead. Although, Times Union reporter Jimmy Vielkind is giving the edge to Corwin.
Nobody is predicting a Jack Davis upset (but my mom thinks he’ll get more than 20 percent).
Anyway, here are the predictions, made by some very brave, and smart, politicos, before the polls closed.
“Hochul by 5” – Maggie Haberman, Politico senior reporter
“Corwin wins!” – Nick Langworthy, Erie County GOP Chairman
Hochul-51, Corwin-39, Davis-10 – Jon Lipe, @NY26volunteer
Hochul-50, Corwin-42, Davis-8 – Jonathan Yedin, a Democratic operative
Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 – Jerry Skurnik, consultant, Prime New York
Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 – Andrew Carden, New Paltz student
Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 – Steve Kornacki, Salon news editor
Hochul-47, Corwin-44, Davis-8, Other-1 – Jeremy Rosenberg, GWU student, dir. of political affairs – Green GW
Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-8 – Steven Greenberg, Greenberg Public Relations
Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 – George Fontas, Democratic consultant
Hochul-47, Corwin-39, Davis-10 – Katie Honan, NBC NY social media editor
Hochul-46, Corwin-45, Davis-8 – Lincoln Restler, Brooklyn Democratic district leader
Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-12 – Tom Allon, Manhattan Media publisher
Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-10 – Dan Levitan, Democratic consultant
Hochul-46, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-1 – Alexander Su, a reader “I would like a t-shirt if I win.”
Hochul-45.6, Corwin-41.9, Davis-11.4, Murphy-1.1 – Colin Campbell, Brooklyn Politics
Hochul-45, Corwin-45, Davis-10 – Bill Mahoney, NYPRIG research coordinator
Hochul-45, Corwin-42, Davis-13 – Kevin Elkins, Democratic operative
Hochul-45, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-2 – Nick Rizzo, reporter
Hochul-45, Corwin-40, Davis-15 – Ryan Naples “Cuomo campaigner, environmental lawyer”
Hochul-44, Corwin-41, Davis-15 – Doug Forand, Democratic consultant, Red Horse Strategies
Hochul-44, Corwin-39, Davis-15 – @LegalCelebrity
Hochul-43, Corwin-40, Davis-17 – @jakegronie “proud dork, liberal, sports fan”
Hochul-41, Corwin-39, Davis-19.5 – Murphy-.5 – Michael Caputo, Republican operative
Hochul-40, Corwin-38, Davis-22 – Myra Paybarah, my mom
Hochul-38, Corwin-34, Davis-29 – Frank Morano, radio producer
Corwin-46, Hochul-45, Davis-8, Murphy-1 – Jimmy Vielkind, Times Union reporter
Corwin-46, Hochul-44, Davis-5 – Ryan Shanley, a reader
Corwin-47, Hochul-45, Davis-8 – Doug Muzzio, Baruch professor. “Total guess, no art or science.”
Corwin-45, Hochul-39, Davis-16 – Jul Thompson, TeaNew York chief organizer
Corwin-42, Hochul-40, Davis-17, Ian Murphy-1 – Steve Kramer, robocall specialist
Corwin-40, Hochul-38, Davis-2 – Bill O’Reilly, Republican consultant
