The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails

By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It’s unclear when exactly a winner will be declared.

Hochul, Davis and Corwin. (graphic via

By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It’s unclear when exactly a winner will be declared. Part of the reason is because of Jane Corwin’s court-ordered injunction on declaring a winner, and, more generally, it’s a close race and counting paper ballots is never a quick or easy process.

Most people are going with public opinion polls, which give Democrat Kathy Hochul a slight lead. Although, Times Union reporter Jimmy Vielkind is giving the edge to Corwin.

Nobody is predicting a Jack Davis upset (but my mom thinks he’ll get more than 20 percent).

Anyway, here are the predictions, made by some very brave, and smart, politicos, before the polls closed.

“Hochul by 5” – Maggie Haberman, Politico senior reporter

“Corwin wins!” – Nick Langworthy, Erie County GOP Chairman


Hochul-51, Corwin-39, Davis-10 – Jon Lipe, @NY26volunteer

Hochul-50, Corwin-42, Davis-8    – Jonathan Yedin, a Democratic operative


Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 – Jerry Skurnik, consultant, Prime New York

Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 – Andrew Carden, New Paltz student

Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 – Steve Kornacki, Salon news editor

Hochul-47, Corwin-44, Davis-8, Other-1 – Jeremy Rosenberg, GWU student, dir. of political affairs – Green GW

Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-8 –   Steven Greenberg, Greenberg Public Relations

Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 – George Fontas, Democratic consultant

Hochul-47, Corwin-39, Davis-10 – Katie Honan, NBC NY social media editor


Hochul-46, Corwin-45, Davis-8 –   Lincoln Restler, Brooklyn Democratic district leader

Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-12 – Tom Allon, Manhattan Media publisher

Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-10 – Dan Levitan, Democratic consultant

Hochul-46, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-1 – Alexander Su, a reader “I would like a t-shirt if I win.”

Hochul-45.6, Corwin-41.9, Davis-11.4, Murphy-1.1 – Colin Campbell, Brooklyn Politics


Hochul-45, Corwin-45, Davis-10 – Bill Mahoney, NYPRIG research coordinator

Hochul-45, Corwin-42, Davis-13 – Kevin Elkins, Democratic operative

Hochul-45, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-2 – Nick Rizzo, reporter

Hochul-45, Corwin-40, Davis-15 – Ryan Naples “Cuomo campaigner, environmental lawyer”

Hochul-44, Corwin-41, Davis-15 – Doug Forand, Democratic consultant, Red Horse Strategies

Hochul-44, Corwin-39, Davis-15 – @LegalCelebrity

Hochul-43, Corwin-40, Davis-17 – @jakegronie “proud dork, liberal, sports fan”

Hochul-41, Corwin-39, Davis-19.5 – Murphy-.5 – Michael Caputo, Republican operative

Hochul-40, Corwin-38, Davis-22 – Myra Paybarah, my mom

Hochul-38, Corwin-34, Davis-29 – Frank Morano, radio producer


Corwin-46, Hochul-45, Davis-8, Murphy-1 – Jimmy Vielkind, Times Union reporter

Corwin-46, Hochul-44, Davis-5 – Ryan Shanley, a reader

Corwin-47, Hochul-45, Davis-8 – Doug Muzzio, Baruch professor. “Total guess, no art or science.”

Corwin-45, Hochul-39, Davis-16 – Jul Thompson, TeaNew York chief organizer

Corwin-42, Hochul-40, Davis-17, Ian Murphy-1 – Steve Kramer, robocall specialist

Corwin-40, Hochul-38, Davis-2 – Bill O’Reilly, Republican consultant


The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails