President Obama’s reelection campaign has been negatively impacted by the defection of a substantial percentage of married women voters to the Romney-Ryan ticket. Economic issues have constituted the main factor in this exodus of a key Obama 2008 constituency, although a majority of single women have remained in the Democratic camp.
This defection of married women has significantly reduced the gender gap that was such a key factor in the victory of the Obama-Biden ticket in 2008. The President’s strategists believe, however, that they have been given a huge gift in this regard this past Sunday by the comments of Congressman Todd Akin (R-Missouri) regarding the right of rape victims to choose to have abortions.
Akin is the Republican candidate opposing incumbent Democratic Missouri U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill. In order to gain control of the U.S. Senate in this November’s elections, Republicans need to pick up four seats. McCaskill is considered to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator in the nation.. If McCaskill is reelected, it is highly unlikely that the GOP can gain control of the U.S. Senate.
Akin has opposed abortion in virtually all cases, including instances of rape. When asked on an interview on KTVI-TV St. Louis on Sunday, August 19 about his views on abortion in cases of rape, Akin responded as follows:
“It seems to me, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let’s assume that maybe that didn’t work or something: I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be of the rapist, and not attacking the child.”
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, to his credit, denounced the Akin remarks as “asinine”, “ridiculous”, and “reprehensible.” The Romney campaign quickly distanced itself from the Akin comments by issuing a statement saying, “Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan disagree with Mr. Akin’s statement, and a Romney-Ryan administration would not oppose abortion in instances of rape.” Romney himself stated that the Akin comments were “insulting, inexcusable and, frankly, wrong.”
If Akin withdraws from the race by 5:00 pm, Tuesday, August 21, 2012, the GOP can replace him with another candidate and still win the seat. I confess that I have a personal favorite for the replacement candidate: Current Congressional candidate and former Ambassador to Luxembourg Ann Wagner. Ann formerly served as Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee during the first term of George W. Bush, and her chief of staff was Dean Armandroff, the first Executive Director of the New Jersey Republican State Committee under former Governor Christie Whitman. Dean is one of the most politically astute people I have met during my career and one of my closest friends.
An Akin withdrawal may solve the GOP Missouri U.S. Senate contest problem; however, the Akin controversy may add an unwelcome dimension to the Romney campaign. Mitt Romney has consistently stated that he would not oppose abortions in cases of rape. By contrast, however, Paul Ryan has opposed all abortions, except in cases where the mother’s life was in danger.
With regard to the Akin controversy, both Ryan and Akin were sponsors last year of H.R. 212, , known as the “Sanctity of Human Life Act.” The legislation provides that “human life shall be deemed to begin with fertilization,” which could curb, if not outlaw, abortion and even some forms of birth control.
The Obama camp doubtless will see this as an opportunity to widen the gender gap to where it was in 2008. Expect the Obama-Biden campaign to run a commercial which starts with a videotape of Akin’s above comments in the Sunday KTVI-TV interview. Then, the narrator will say the following words:
Paul Ryan and Todd Akin were partners in sponsoring H.R. 212, which would eliminate a woman’s right to choose, even in cases of rape. Ryan and his partner, Todd Akin would deny women their most fundamental rights.
The hope of the President’s campaign is that such a message would result in married women defecting from Romney-Ryan and returning to the Obama-Biden fold. Will it work? I don’t know, but I have no doubt that the Obama-Biden campaign will run such a commercial. Stay tuned.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.
