On June 18, 2012, I wrote a column for PolitickerNJ.com entitled “Election 2012: Romney elected President and Biden elected Vice President? A real possibility.” In that column, I explained that if Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each received 269 electoral votes, the result would almost certainly be a Mitt Romney-Joe Biden administration. The following is a link to this column:
The following are my current Electoral College projections:
SAFE OR LIKELY OBAMA: 237 Electoral Votes:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4) , Illinois (20), Maine(4), Maryland (10) , Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New York (29), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
LEAN OBAMA: 22 Electoral Votes
Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10)
SAFE OR LIKELY ROMNEY: 206 Electoral Votes:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
LEAN ROMNEY: 51 Electoral Votes:
Colorado (9), Florida (29), Virginia (13)
TOSS-UP: 22 Electoral Votes.
New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18)
TOTAL OBAMA: 259 Electoral Votes
TOTAL ROMNEY: 257 Electoral Votes
TOSS-UP: 22 Electoral Votes:
NEEDED TO WIN: 270 Electoral Votes
If Obama carries both the toss-up states of New Hampshire and Ohio, but loses to Romney the states of Iowa and Nevada, which both currently lean to Obama, each candidate will have 269 electoral votes. If, as expected, the Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and the Democrats retain control of the Senate, the House would elect Romney president, and the Senate would elect Biden vice president.
I’m not predicting a tie and a Romney-Biden administration, but this is more than a remote possibility.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.