The very good post-debate news for Mitt Romney is that there has been a significant tightening of the polls in Wisconsin. As a result, I have moved Wisconsin from a “Safe Obama “status into the toss-up category.
My current projections are as follows:
SAFE OBAMA: 237 Electoral Votes:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4) , Illinois (20), Maine(4), Maryland (10) , Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New York (29), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12),
SAFE ROMNEY: 191 Electoral Votes:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).
TOSS-UP: 110 Electoral Votes.
Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Virginia (13). Wisconsin (10)
The essential dynamic of the campaign remains as follows: Obama has the larger base of safe electoral votes and an easier path to the magic 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
Obama will win reelection if he wins the toss-up states of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada, states where he currently leads. Romney will have to deny him a victory in one of these three states, plus win all the remaining six toss-up states.
Yet Mitt Romney now has momentum. A Romney victory scenario is certainly more plausible than it was before the debate.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.