“Okay, the race for the White House is over and it’s time to look at the New York City mayoral race, where the possibly decisive Democratic primary could be as early as June. The morning line? City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leaves the other Democratic contenders in the dust,” Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement with his latest survey.
The numbers indeed show Ms. Quinn far ahead, with 32% support among registered Democrats, even as she faces off against two citywide elected officials, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio and Comptroller John Liu, and 2009’s nominee, Bill Thompson. Mr. Thompson barely edged out Mr. de Blasio for the silver medal, 10 to 9 percent, with Mr. Liu standing at 5 percent.
(The survey was conducted before Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer dropped out of the race, but he took only 4 percent).
It’s not exactly surprising that Ms. Quinn is ahead; she’s led all recent polling, including last month’s NY1/Marist survey.
However, it’s important to keep in mind that multi-candidate primary races are incredibly fluid, as voters are far more likely to change their mind in a primary than the typical Republican vs. Democrat affair. Also, as the poll included all registered Democrats, it undoubtedly captured a wider audience than the more motivated electorate that will actually turn out come Election Day. Nevertheless, it’s much better to be ahead than behind, and Ms. Quinn’s rivals have a lot of work to do.
Two potential Republican candidates were also tested, M.T.A. Chairman Joe Lhota and former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión, and they distantly trailed in a question pitting them against a generic Democrat.
[scribd id=114013934 key=key-1wasvg3n9521wyp1140l mode=scroll]