A Siena College Poll released today found Gov. Andrew Cuomo leading GOP Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino 54 percent to 33 percent less than two weeks before Election Day, down from 56-27 percent a month ago–and despite Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, fellow Democrats, making strides ahead of their Republican rivals.
The survey, conducted over the phone with 748 likely voters, found the governor’s support had slipped slightly since September while Mr. Astorino’s improved–though likely not enough to pull a coup on November 4. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins, meanwhile, pulled in nine percent of the vote.
Pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Mr. Astorino’s current numbers are in line with those of Mr. Cuomo’s 2010 opponent, Carl Paladino. Mr. Cuomo’s numbers are down from that year by roughly the same amount that Mr. Hawkins’ are up.
“Cuomo is nine points shy of the 63 percent of the vote he got four years ago. Unfortunately for Astorino, however, he’s 21 points away from equaling the 54 percent current support Cuomo has among likely voters. In fact, Astorino’s 33 percent support matches what the Republican gubernatorial candidate got in 2010. The difference is Howie Hawkins’ nine percent support,” said Mr. Greenberg, though he noted third-party candidates often poll better than they ultimately perform.
Siena’s numbers for the race are roughly in line with a Quinnipiac University Poll conducted earlier this month, which gave Mr. Cuomo a 20-point lead over Mr. Astorino.
Republican Robert Antonacci made a miniscule gain against Mr. DiNapoli–who has consistently enjoyed the highest numbers–and trails him now at 31 percent to 58 percent. The last poll had Mr. DiNapoli leading 56-27 a month ago.
Meanwhile, Mr. Schneiderman is now outstripping Republican John Cahill–former chief-of-staff to former Gov. George Pataki–by 21 points, up five from last month. The attorney general looked to be facing the toughest contest of all the three, but now enjoys a comfortable lead, with the race standing at 55 percent to 35 percent.
“What had appeared to be the potentially closest of the statewide races, now appears to be right in line with the other two races. Big lead for the Dems,” said Mr. Greenberg.
Mr. Greenberg noted that Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Schneiderman are tied with their Republican opponents among male voters but lead among females–while Mr. DiNapoli has a double-digit advantage among both demographics, polling 10 percent higher than Mr. Antonacci with men and 43 percent higher with women.