A two-term president is always at his weakest point politically during the sixth year of his tenure. Barack Obama is not only weak; he is a complete political catastrophe for the Democrats. He is far weaker in his sixth year than were our last three two term presidents: Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43.
The Republicans do have brand problems, and they have not run the most effective U.S. Senate campaigns. Obama, however, is the best thing the GOP has had going for it nationally in years; he is viewed by the electorate at best as indifferent and at worst, as grossly incompetent. The Republicans are virtually certain to win control of the US Senate, in spite of themselves. They will also easily retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Two Senate seats currently held by the GOP may well be lost by the Republicans in Campaign 2014: Kansas and Georgia. I do believe, however, that the GOP will capture at least eight seats currently held by the Democrats, thus giving Republicans the necessary net gain of six.
Specifically, I am highly confident that the Republicans will win the U.S. Senate contests in the following states, where
the seats up for election are currently held by the Democrats: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. The race in Louisiana may require a December runoff, but the Republicans will win it, and the GOP faithful will then be able to pop the champagne corks on attaining a U.S. Senate majority.
The GOP also has a growing chance of capturing the Senate seats presently held by the Democrats in North Carolina and New Hampshire. If the GOP captures either seat, they will lock down their majority on Election Night.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.