I’ll make it simple. The current U.S. Senate lineup is 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans. There are twelve battleground races involving seats in the following states: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Here is a link to the page on the website of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball showing the names of the candidates in all the U.S. Senate races in this election.
In the battleground races listed above, the Republicans currently hold the seats in Georgia and Kansas. The Democrats hold the seats at stake in the other races.
In order for the Republicans to gain control of the 51 seats necessary to have a Senate majority, they must win eight of the twelve races. By tomorrow morning, the GOP will have won seven of these races: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and the Democrats will have retained the seats in New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The GOP will win the races in Louisiana and Georgia, giving the Republicans a Senate majority, but not until the runoffs, Louisiana in December and Georgia in January. In order for the Republicans to win control of the Senate today, before the Georgia and Louisiana runoffs, they must win the Kansas race.
I keep vacillating on this race. My hunch, however, is that incumbent Republican Pat Roberts ekes out a narrow victory, giving the Republicans a Senate majority by tomorrow morning.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. As long as one doesn’t bet on his or her picks, that is the fun of predicting elections!
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.