FDU Poll: NJ Republicans rank Bush and Christie tied as prez prospects

Nominated by Gov. Chris Christie to the Supreme Court in 2013, Justice Faustino J. Fernandez-Vina was one of five judge's writing today's majority opinion. (Governor's Office/Tim Larsen)

Nominated by Gov. Chris Christie to the Supreme Court in 2013, Justice Faustino J. Fernandez-Vina was one of five judge’s writing today’s majority opinion. (Governor’s Office/Tim Larsen)

In the eyes of New Jersey voters, the top Republican and Democratic candidates for President of the United States are also the candidates who are the most disliked according to Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind.

New Jersey Governor Christie may be laboring under declining approval in the state, but when it comes to his presidential prospects, New Jersey Republicans put him at the top along with former Florida governor, Jeb Bush.  Bush and Christie are tied for support among Republicans in the state at 18 percent each. Behind them is real estate developer and reality television star, Donald Trump at 11 percent. Behind them are contenders – those who have both announced their candidacy and those still considering their options – who garner support in the single digits.

Garden State Republicans identify Christie and Trump as candidates they would NEVER support, regardless of who the Democratic opponent turns out to be. Trump commands the condemnation of 27 percent of registered Republicans, with the Governor not too far behind (22%). Half of registered Republicans (52%) said they could identify someone whom they would never support in the general election.

“In a crowded field like the Republican crop of possible nominees, the fact that Governor Christie evokes passions on both sides at least sets him apart from others who generate a collective yawn,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton retains her lead over other prospective nominees. Almost two-thirds (63%) of registered Democrats favor her over Vermont senator Bernie Sanders (15%) and Martin O’Malley (3%). At the same time, 29 percent of Democrats categorically reject the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. However, it is important to note that as compared with Republicans, a far smaller percentage of Democrats said they could identify someone whom they would never support in the general election. One-in-five (19%) registered Democrats compared with half (52%) of registered Republicans feel strongly about saying no to one of their own.

Turning to the Obama presidency, the “same story, different day” narrative prevails. Garden State voters are divided over his leadership with 44 percent who say they approve of his job performance and 43 percent who are opposed. And, when it comes to the general health of the nation, a third (33%) say the country is on stable footing with 52 percent who believe it is headed down the wrong track. These numbers are virtually unchanged from  the past few surveys PublicMind  has conducted of registered voters in the Garden State.

Methodology – The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone June 15-21, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 792 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 points, including the design effect.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Methodology

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from June 15 through 21 using a randomly selected sample of 792 self-identified registered voters in New Jersey. One can be 95 percent confident that the error attributable to sampling has a range of +/- 3.7 percentage points, including the design effect. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame.  The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race.  440 interviews were conducted on landlines and 352 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Tables

I’m going to read you a list of current and prospective candidates for the Republican nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you vote for? (READ LIST) [N = 267; MoE = 6.3]

Jeb Bush 18%
Ben Carson 6%
Chris Christie 18%
Ted Cruz 3%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Bobby Jindal 0
John Kasich 0
George Pataki 2%
Rand Paul 5%
Rick Perry 2%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rick Santorum 2%
Donald Trump 11%
Scott Walker 9%
Other (vol) 2%
Wouldn’t vote (vol) 2%
DK/Refused (vol) 10%

 

 

PRESRB          Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless who they ran against? If yes, ask who [N=139]

Jeb Bush 16%
Ben Carson 1%
Chris Christie 22%
Ted Cruz 4%
Carly Fiorina 0
Lindsey Graham 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Bobby Jindal 1%
John Kasich 0
George Pataki 0
Rand Paul 9%
Rick Perry 2%
Marco Rubio 2%
Rick Santorum 4%
Donald Trump 27%
Scott Walker 1%
Other (vol) 2%
Wouldn’t vote (vol) 1%
DK/Refused (vol) 1%

 

 

 

 

I’m going to read you a list of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. If the election were held today, who would you  vote for? (READ LIST) [N = 345; MoE 5.5]

Lincoln Chafee 0
Hillary Clinton 63%
Martin O’Maley 3%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Other (vol) 1%
Wouldn’t vote (vol) 3%
DK/Refused (vol) 14%

 

 

PRESDB            Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless who they ran against? If yes,

ask who [precoded] [N = 64]

Lincoln Chafee 14%
Hillary Clinton 29%
Martin O’Maley 24%
Bernie Sanders 11%
Wouldn’t vote (vol) 2%
Other (vol) 13%
DK/Refused (vol) 7%
FDU Poll: NJ Republicans rank Bush and Christie tied as prez prospects