PolitickerNJ poured over NJ’s statewide voter registration summaries—both by legislative district and by county—to determine which of this year’s legislative and county races were among the least competitive in the state.
While these are not the only races likely to be swept by one party or another, here are ten races that will likely not see much shift in 2015:
- LD28. Legislative District 28 has 139,384 registered voters. Of that number 63,451 are registered as Democrats and 9,500 are registered as Republicans (the rest are unaffiliated or affiated with another party). With such a stark difference in numbers, it is unlikely that the Republican candidates will be able to unseat Cleopatra Tucker and Ralph Caputo. Both were elected to the assembly in 2007.
- LD34. While Republican John Traier is garnering attention in LD34, his race is really more of a challenge against the perceived narrow-mindedness of his own party rather than incumbent Democrats Sheila Oliver and Thomas Giblin. Traier, who is openly gay, is bringing attention to the diversity in the GOP but the numbers just don’t add up for a victory. In LD34 there are 53,764 more Democrats registered to vote than Republicans.
- LD20. In LD20 only 7,065 of the 109,352 registered voters are Republicans. The district is wedged completely in the mostly-democratic Union County (126,343 Dems registered v. 42,166 Republicans). The district has not been represented by a Republican since 1981.
- LD29. Legislative District 29 is another example of Democratic control at the legislative level. Of the 118,660 voters registered there, only 5,350 are Republican. Assemblywoman Grace Spencer has represented the district containing Newark in the assembly since 2008. Newark being New Jersey’s largest city and a democratic stronghold means that republicans will have a hard time gaining ground in LD29.
- LD30. The Democratic candidate in LD30, Jim Keady, has little chance of carrying this legislative district. Though he gained notoriety for the October 2014 incident where Governor Chris Christie told him to ‘sit down and shut up,’ the county skews heavily Republican. According to sources, Keady is disappointed in the county’s Democratic Party leadership and believed that his candidacy could have been more competitive with more county support. In LD30, there are 23,752 Dems registered compared with 41,055 Republicans.
- LD31. Even though Assemblymen Jason O’Donnell and Charles Mainor are not seeking reelection this year, Democrats Angela McKnight and Nick Chiaravalloti are still the favorites to take home the victory. Even though Republican Matthew Kopko has little chance of succeeding in the Democratic district in Hudson County, he is running his campaign as though it were a winnable race. The district has 109,691 registered voters, 53,942 democrats and 7,110 republicans.
- LD24. The GOP has the upper hand in this mainly Sussex County district. The Northwest corner of the state tends to skew Republican with LD24 incumbent Parker Space having earned over 33% of the vote in the 2013 election. Now, even though incumbent Allison McHose is not seeking reelection, Republicans are still likely to sweep here.
- Morris County Freeholder Race. Like it’s neighboring county of Sussex, Morris County also tends to lean to the right. The freeholder board is currently completely Republican controlled and, though there were circumstances that led to a split Republican ticket this year, there is little likelihood Democrats can win a spot. The Dems didn’t have anyone on the ballot in the primary and their three candidates made it on the November ballot due to a write-in campaign. The Democrats are running on the “Morris Moderates” ticket. Morris County has 112,478 registered Republican voters and 68,392 registered Democrats.
- Camden County Freeholder Race. Camden County has 132,734 Democrats registered to vote and 42,054 registered Republicans. With numbers like those against them, the Republican candidates will likely have difficultly winning a seat.
- Middlesex County Freeholder Race. Infighting in the Middlesex county GOP—another Democratic stronghold—means that the Republican Party is struggling to campaign efficiently against the Democrats. The county has 172,308 Democrats, 59,127 registered Republicans and 478,785 registered voters.