Jeb needs to show energy. Carson needs to be a statesman. Trump needs to be…er…as Trump as possible.
There are a lot of hot takes about the third televised debate of this raucous Republican primary, though this single showdown on CNBC tonight will probably not determine who emerges as the nominee, let alone alter this year’s peculiar status quo: outsiders ascendant, insiders fading.
But how long will that status quo last? What should voters, pundits and casual watchers really be thinking about as they watch a field of unprecedented size and swagger slug it out on TV once more? The Observer is here to offer a little assistance.
Iowa, Iowa, Iowa
This is no national primary, so stop dissecting and agonizing over national polls. The debate performances tonight should be viewed through the lenses of the early voting states alone. Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon known for comparing a lot of liberal things to Nazi Germany, is not a policy maven, and his brand of simmering conservatism can’t thrive if he tries to moderate himself. It won’t help to show restraint in the one state he can very much win, Iowa, where evangelical voters in love with Mr. Carson handed victories to candidates in 2008 and 2012 who were cut from the same cloth, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. His lead in Iowa over Mr. Trump is significant because Mr. Carson is the type of Republican who can succeed there–and Mr. Trump, a New York billionaire with deceptively liberal positions on anything that isn’t immigration, is anything but the ideal Iowan. No candidate like Trump has ever won the nomination, and it’s time to start thinking about early voting states where he could stumble. That’s why Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas–a conservative who is as uncompromising on immigration as Mr. Trump and at least has the veneer of legitimacy that comes with elected office–is another candidate to watch tonight. He and Mr. Carson are fighting for many of the same caucus goers in Iowa, and it’s not impossible to imagine both surging past Mr. Trump in the state when all is said and done.
Who Gets Culled From the Herd?
While the importance of a single debate may get exaggerated, a solid showing can help with fundraising and a temporary poll bump if a candidate has a noteworthy “moment” easily digested on social media. For candidates in desperate need of moments–Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Chris Christie, Gov. John Kasich–tonight could be the last time they matter. As we saw in September with Gov. Scott Walker’s exit, a televised disappearing act can be the stake in the heart of a campaign. It’s very possible this debate will produce another Walker–a Republican who entered the field with a lot of bluster and quickly went bust. Unlike Mr. Kasich, who governs a significant swing state and is making a smart, hard play for New Hampshire moderates, the Christie and Paul campaigns really are on life support. The media overrated the strength of the libertarian movement and Mr. Paul, bleeding money, is looking like he’s boxed out in Iowa, where he’s scrambling for a toehold. Mr. Christie has no New Jersey success story to sell, and Mr. Trump long ago solidified himself as the real-talk rebel of the race. Even Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard executive who had her winning moment in the second debate, has seen her standing in the polls slide, and if she doesn’t stand out tonight, her candidacy could be derailed a lot sooner than she hoped. Look for at least one of these Republicans to slip closer to the abyss (not running for president, not appearing on national television) tomorrow morning.
Where do the Sunshine State Guys Go From Here?
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is in trouble. He has not been able to shake the “low energy” tag Mr. Trump slapped on him and donors are increasingly nervous. Democratic and Republican voters appear to have little appetite for another Bush in the White House. Unlike his older brother, he is not a natural campaigner, and fails to excite the grassroots Republicans who vote in primaries, despite his record as a hard-line conservative in Florida. Yes, Mitt Romney in 2012 contended with many of the same problems, but he was fending off a small parade of damaged candidates who could not compete with his prolific fundraising. For Mr. Bush, the competition is more formidable, and a weak performance in tonight’s debate–a bumbling answer to Mr. Trump’s inevitable bullying or a gaffe easily packaged for a Democrat attack ad–will only fuel the doubters.
Mr. Bush also has another problem named Marco Rubio. Mr. Rubio, a Florida senator who hates being a senator, is everything Mr. Bush isn’t: young, telegenic, strong on the stump, and oddly bad at raising money. Both favor, or have favored, some kind of immigration reform, and this could doom them ultimately. But Mr. Rubio is an adept debater steadily rising in the polls, and is historically the sort of candidate who can win a Republican primary. A competent night for Mr. Rubio–and a poor one for Mr. Bush–may mean the Floridian and establishment donor classes seriously think about throwing in big with the senator. We already know Hillary Clinton dreads a match-up with Mr. Rubio, and he has another chance in the debate to show why. On the flip side, other candidates may gang up on him, and we don’t know yet how the boyish Republican will handle a target on his back.
Disclosure: Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is the publisher of Observer Media.
