Before last night, I said that the battle for the GOP presidential nomination depended on the Iowa caucuses. Whoever won, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, would be the Republican nominee. The Iowa outcome has only reinforced my belief.
There are two results of the Iowa caucuses other than the Ted Cruz victory itself. The first is the shattering of the myth of the invincibility and inevitability of Donald Trump. The second is the likely emergence of Marco Rubio as the GOP establishment candidate. Both these developments will virtually guarantee the nomination of Ted Cruz as the presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this coming July.
Ted Cruz is now certain to emerge from the field as the closest competitor to Donald Trump in next week’s New Hampshire primary. He can definitely defeat The Donald with all the momentum he now has, but he doesn’t have to. The real impact of the Trump Iowa defeat will be found in South Carolina and the SEC primaries.
Donald Trump has been able to appeal to Evangelist and movement conservative voters not on the basis of any ideological compatibility but rather due to his being the apparent inevitable GOP presidential nominee. The Trump cloak of invincibility and inevitability, however, has now been irreversibly removed.
Ted Cruz will now overwhelm Donald Trump nationally in the Evangelist and movement conservative communities. This will ensure that he will sweep South Carolina on Saturday, February 20 and the SEC primaries on Super Tuesday March 1. In the winner-take-all primaries that follow soon thereafter, Cruz will run the table with victories, particularly in such far western states as California.
The GOP establishment is determined to stop Ted Cruz, so they will unite behind Marco Rubio, the Senator from Florida with the boyish good looks and sonorous voice. In political terms, however, Marco Rubio has the most vulnerable glass jaw since Floyd Patterson.
That glass jaw is Rubio’s ultra-interventionist, neocon foreign policy, focused on America’s playing the role of policeman of the world. Marco Rubio is brought to you by the same folks who gave us the war in Iraq under George W. Bush. This is a foreign policy which is total anathema to GOP grassroots voters.
Ted Cruz advocates a foreign policy which is neither isolationist like Rand Paul’s nor neocon interventionist like Rubio’s. Instead, the Cruz foreign policy reflects the principles of the famed late University of Chicago Professor Hans Morgenthau. Pursuant to this philosophy, a President Cruz would limit foreign interventions to those necessary for the protection of American national interests. This foreign policy issue will result in Cruz winning landslides over Rubio in any one on one primary contest.
One of those states is New Jersey. Ted Cruz will be a strong favorite to win the Garden State. Meanwhile, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s presidential campaign continues to be a national laughingstock, despite support from George Will and Joe Scarborough of the Morning Joe show on MSNBC. In Iowa last night, Christie won a massive total of two percent. If he is fortunate, he will win three percent next week in New Hampshire.
Will Chris Christie attend the Republican National Convention in Cleveland and be present when delegation chair Steve Lonegan, leader of the Cruz for President Campaign in New Jersey announces the delegation vote? Stay tuned.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman The Ted Cruz for President Campaign announced Alan’s endorsement in December.