Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga’s A Star Is Born continues to shine at the box office. This past weekend, it remained in second place three weeks after its release, earning a healthy $19.3 million. The $36 million budgeted film has now pulled in an impressive $126.3 million domestically and $201.1 million worldwide, per comScore. But how much money can it ultimately make? Short answer: a lot.
Released on October 5, A Star Is Born has not dropped more than 33 percent weekend to weekend, proving itself remarkably leggy. By contrast, massive blockbusters such as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (69 percent) and Star Wars: The Last Jedi (66 percent) saw significant drops in their second weeks. Any drop of more than 65 percent in the early going is generally considered bad news, so the fact that A Star Is Born has yet to even sniff at a 40 percent drop says a lot about its prospects.
Chances are slim that the film will top the $446 million worldwide that La La Land pulled in because of its darker material and R rating, but its rave reviews and the overwhelming cultural interest tied to it give it a good shot at beating the former’s $151 million domestic total. As Forbes points out, A Star Is Born is currently holding on pace with films such as Gone Girl and The Martian, which means it could realistically earn $200 million or more domestic. Not even Halloween‘s record-threatening opening this past weekend could slow it down, and the next major buzzy release isn’t until November 2, when Bohemian Rhapsody hits theaters.
The critically acclaimed musical drama, which also marks Cooper’s directorial debut, earned $22.8 million from 75 overseas markets this past weekend, bringing its tally to $74.7 million. It saw just a minor 20 percent drop in holdover territories. That’s a fancy way of saying that international audiences appear to be digging the potentially strong Oscars contender almost as much as we are. In comparison, Hugh Jackman’s musical fantasy The Greatest Showman took in a total of more than $260 million overseas while La La Land earned nearly $295 million. While A Star Is Born may not rake in that much (its material may be slightly more divisive for general audiences) these films’ high grosses speak to the healthy appetites of international moviegoers for grand, colorful musical numbers.
If A Star Is Born can indeed break the $200 million barrier domestically while adding just $50 million more overseas (absolutely doable), then it’s looking at a $325 million worldwide gross, with room for more. It’s already a hit. But if it can come close to earning around $350 million, it’ll become one of the most profitable films of the year.